TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Noche UFC: Luna vs. Le

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lunaof Luna, Le
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$526,977
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$598,869

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $526,977 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfaa…2813backed Le41c416,173$171,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,053.743036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Luna60c169,931$101,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,175.944744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Luna58c75,000$43,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,30014857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Luna58c74,877$43,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,448.551968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Luna58c70,000$40,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,10019544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Luna58c17,321$10,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,274.9937152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843d…e617backed Luna58c15,000$8,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Le41c6,224$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550.957545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Le42c5,574$2,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3415955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4d…6055backed Luna60c5,007$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.562536%9 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Luna58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6803545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Luna58c2,500$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.996746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Luna58c2,302$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97718453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Luna59c2,200$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91213735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Le42c2,095$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.928256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x285b…5231backed Le43c2,066$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.512259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Luna66c1,865$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.8228043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Le44c1,600$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.4117752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Le44c1,331$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.2726743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fc…db55backed Luna60c1,319$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.742045%9 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Luna60c1,200$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48030964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee7e…7e73backed Le42c1,197$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Le39c1,196$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.386533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Luna59c900.01$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36916247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Le41c880.49$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3613959%23 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Le39c858$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.6218038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Le41c853.66$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3506937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Luna59c795$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.9521247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Luna58c757.38$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.123850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Le44c700$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30818145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Luna57c666.98$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.83525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Luna58c650$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27316745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Le39c589.8$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.028939.3%35 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Le39c550$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.56829.4%20 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Le40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Le44c499.99$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21828743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Le41c486$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.267343.8%32 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Le40c485$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.498940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Luna52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19237754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f8d…e3ebbacked Le25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Le25c328$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8231855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Le42c321.43$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Luna60c260$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.336655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Le40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022753.3%121 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Le39c250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick37cpaid+104.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x62fc…0b71backed Luna60c243.33$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Le42c233.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9851533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Le44c229.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.256450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c6…1dbdbacked Luna60c222.55$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cf5…ef29backed Luna59c210$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+40.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Le42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8439959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Le53c200$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.310447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Luna60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803275%24 W · 8 L+9.5wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+84.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Luna51c199.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9853956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Le43c181.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2624847.2%117 W · 131 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Luna56c161.81$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1917850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a7…8f05backed Le42c154.76$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655839.7%23 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Luna59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.56451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0186…defdbacked Luna60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+45.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Luna59c141.68$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6816851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Luna58c122.5$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4512541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c9…cf27backed Le41c121.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Luna60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4011540.9%47 W · 68 L-10.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Luna58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4233948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b2…c82fbacked Luna60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a6…cb5fbacked Le47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Luna59c93.22$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.226462.5%40 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3149…9762backed Luna60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284450%22 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74b2…05e0backed Luna60c66.2$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.48771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+49.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Luna56c62.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.532431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed Le43c53.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Luna57c51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8214530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Luna50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe795…e6debacked Le50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253540%14 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Le41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011138.7%43 W · 68 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Luna60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1652252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Luna50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2014052.1%73 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22c7…ca3ebacked Luna45c36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.785736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Le45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155550.9%28 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Luna58c26.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.177859%46 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe63e…710ebacked Luna60c24.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Luna57c23.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2612446.8%58 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c73…2759backed Luna60c21.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.67862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.