UFC · resolved market
Noche UFC: Rendon vs. Pereira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a563d7514f90719d09fbb8456c3d1d3bff679697e9698f470f0a4ad5bea5c84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rendonof Rendon, Pereira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Rendon | 80c | 22,917$18,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,585.92 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Pereira | 15c | 5,258$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.84 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Pereira | 58c | 4,848$2,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,790.32 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Pereira | 18c | 4,435$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Pereira | 17c | 4,367$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.33 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Rendon | 41c | 4,000$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,359.99 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Pereira | 36c | 3,593$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.45 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Pereira | 33c | 1,800$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Rendon | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Pereira | 59c | 1,152$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked Pereira | 62c | 1,134$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…fabbbacked Rendon | 38c | 928.07$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Pereira | 44c | 901.39$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Pereira | 57c | 854.29$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.95 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Rendon | 79c | 831.05$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.28 | 281 | 43.1%121 W · 160 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pereira | 22c | 638.89$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Rendon | 31c | 575.91$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.14 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13f5…7049backed Pereira | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Rendon | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Rendon | 41c | 499.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.99 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Pereira | 59c | 497.53$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.54 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Rendon | 40c | 475.01$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Pereira | 60c | 437.74$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.64 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Rendon | 41c | 420$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.8 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Rendon | 45c | 396.38$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Rendon | 54c | 364.31$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.63 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…2704backed Pereira | 48c | 301.7$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.73 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Pereira | 59c | 265.91$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.41 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pereira | 57c | 253.88$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Pereira | 59c | 253.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Rendon | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Pereira | 37c | 232.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…e3ebbacked Pereira | 44c | 197$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Pereira | 57c | 165$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Rendon | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 378 | 54.8%207 W · 171 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Rendon | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Pereira | 41c | 141.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Rendon | 43c | 139.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Pereira | 36c | 126.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Rendon | 41c | 118.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rendon | 40c | 113.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…85a4backed Rendon | 41c | 111.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…defdbacked Pereira | 35c | 107$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Pereira | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Pereira | 58c | 97.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Rendon | 38c | 93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Pereira | 66c | 84.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Pereira | 23c | 68.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Rendon | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Rendon | 30c | 62.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4f…bdfabacked Rendon | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Pereira | 20c | 58.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -9.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Rendon | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431b…1d9cbacked Rendon | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Pereira | 31c | 52.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Pereira | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 265 | 52.1%138 W · 127 L | +23.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Rendon | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Rendon | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 178 | 51.7%92 W · 86 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Rendon | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rendon | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Pereira | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Pereira | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Pereira | 58c | 39.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…a211backed Rendon | 44c | 36.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Pereira | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…0638backed Pereira | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…8b71backed Rendon | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9068…aaadbacked Pereira | 59c | 20.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Pereira | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Noche UFC: Rendon vs. Pereirathis page
- Noche UFC: Aguilar vs. GuruleAguilar won
- Noche UFC: Costa vs. CoriaCoria won
- Noche UFC: Font vs. MartinezMartinez won
- Noche UFC: Garcia vs. GordonGarcia won
- Noche UFC: Gastelum vs. StoltzfusGastelum won
- Noche UFC: Hernandez vs. FerreiraHernandez won
- Noche UFC: Lopes vs. SilvaLopes won
- Noche UFC: Luna vs. LeLuna won
- Noche UFC: Medina vs. TodorovićTodorović won
- Noche UFC: Puelles vs. SilvaSilva won
- Noche UFC: Sezinando vs. DonchenkoDonchenko won
- Noche UFC: Suarez vs. LemosSuarez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.