UFC · resolved market
Noche UFC: Medina vs. Todorović
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e2ed24ca88d11ee36edbd9f1e9c13f74b7a6af1092aef4034142aa6c47a24cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Todorovićof Medina, Todorović
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Todorović | 78c | 14,965$11,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,361.03 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Medina | 22c | 12,000$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.99 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Medina | 25c | 3,882$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.28 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Todorović | 75c | 2,179$1,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.64 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Medina | 24c | 2,000$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Todorović | 76c | 1,626$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.23 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Todorović | 78c | 1,169$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.09 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Medina | 22c | 1,071$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.56 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Medina | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Medina | 21c | 729.09$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…e3ebbacked Todorović | 78c | 659.74$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Todorović | 78c | 520$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Medina | 21c | 515.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2766…4c94backed Todorović | 78c | 484.91$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Medina | 22c | 454$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…32a7backed Medina | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Todorović | 76c | 335$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Todorović | 77c | 332.14$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Medina | 22c | 320$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Todorović | 77c | 272.46$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…d875backed Medina | 24c | 260$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Medina | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Medina | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0635…0119backed Todorović | 79c | 209.63$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Medina | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 166 | 55.4%92 W · 74 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Medina | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Medina | 23c | 168.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2711…163bbacked Medina | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Todorović | 70c | 83.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…e6debacked Medina | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Medina | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…2704backed Todorović | 79c | 79.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Medina | 24c | 67.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Medina | 21c | 64.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Todorović | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…defdbacked Medina | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Todorović | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c73…2759backed Todorović | 77c | 22.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Todorović | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Noche UFC: Medina vs. Todorovićthis page
- Noche UFC: Aguilar vs. GuruleAguilar won
- Noche UFC: Costa vs. CoriaCoria won
- Noche UFC: Font vs. MartinezMartinez won
- Noche UFC: Garcia vs. GordonGarcia won
- Noche UFC: Gastelum vs. StoltzfusGastelum won
- Noche UFC: Hernandez vs. FerreiraHernandez won
- Noche UFC: Lopes vs. SilvaLopes won
- Noche UFC: Luna vs. LeLuna won
- Noche UFC: Puelles vs. SilvaSilva won
- Noche UFC: Rendon vs. PereiraRendon won
- Noche UFC: Sezinando vs. DonchenkoDonchenko won
- Noche UFC: Suarez vs. LemosSuarez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.