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UFC · resolved market

Noche UFC: Garcia vs. Gordon

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Garciaof Garcia, Gordon
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$771,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$789,972

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $771,683 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfaa…2813backed Gordon62c653,619$402,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,942.853036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Garcia38c274,675$105,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169,118.5935253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Garcia38c155,100$59,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,401.921968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Garcia38c150,000$57,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,00019154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Garcia39c74,004$28,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,102.0719544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Gordon61c29,990$18,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,293.914857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Garcia38c28,726$10,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,855.213259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Garcia55c21,097$11,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,542.6929151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Gordon61c10,000$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,10022259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Garcia38c7,000$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,34037152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Garcia38c5,838$2,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6228940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Gordon64c4,000$2,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,54820954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee7e…7e73backed Gordon63c3,515$2,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,214.41944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Garcia38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8601770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+62.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Garcia38c2,944$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8251827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9aaf…114dbacked Garcia39c2,600$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Gordon61c2,600$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5868256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Gordon62c2,446$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.067841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Garcia37c2,028$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.835826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Gordon63c2,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26039959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Garcia40c1,749$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.464953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Gordon15c1,515$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5414530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Gordon58c1,101$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.8651533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Garcia35c1,074$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.1418038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebed…97bebacked Gordon62c1,020$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.41250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Garcia39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.132842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c5…7becbacked Garcia38c1,000$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Garcia39c999.99$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.993171%22 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+47%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Gordon47c985.64$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.198835.2%31 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb406…4964backed Gordon67c979.61$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.341662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Gordon62c806.45$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005362.3%33 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Gordon61c782.94$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.591850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Gordon62c776.99$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.7323850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Garcia34c639$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.745950.8%30 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Garcia74c624.5$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.7154056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Garcia38c600$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3721258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Garcia32c595.35$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.788939.3%35 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Gordon66c521.41$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.1317850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cf5…ef29backed Gordon62c516.13$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+40.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Garcia39c506.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.414548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Garcia33c500$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33525251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Garcia38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3101650%8 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Garcia51c474.08$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.313650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Garcia53c450$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.537854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Gordon65c439.8$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1633948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Garcia32c403.13$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.132751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Garcia38c402.5$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.5521044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Gordon61c342.16$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.3522342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Gordon66c327.74$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7528743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Gordon65c317$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.3436755.3%203 W · 164 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Garcia35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1953275%24 W · 8 L+9.5wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+84.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Gordon70c286.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.567960.8%48 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ec…1bafbacked Garcia38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.167454.1%40 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d7…8b82backed Gordon65c260$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Gordon39c250$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.526552.1%138 W · 127 L+23.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Gordon66c249.25$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1643046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Gordon65c240$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.4248749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Gordon62c224.24$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.0310040%40 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Garcia29c205.63$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1465253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79ea…afc6backed Gordon61c202.38$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.45862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Garcia40c192.5$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.531855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Garcia48c183.33$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3321554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0186…defdbacked Garcia39c179$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.194355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+45.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Gordon61c178.87$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106462.5%40 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe65b…387abacked Gordon61c172.3$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.11010%1 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.35per pick45cpaid-86.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Gordon62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016058.8%94 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83ce…0d06backed Garcia39c161.18$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.322740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Gordon32c161$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5218145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Gordon62c160$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.213160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Gordon65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Gordon61c150$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.56451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Gordon61c150$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.536745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9e…239fbacked Gordon70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002536%9 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6eec…6d82backed Gordon37c135.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x59a6…2fa2backed Garcia75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.332657.7%15 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Gordon42c133$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.489336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Gordon50c112.95$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.47633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Garcia34c111.93$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.518453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Gordon63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.652252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x211a…9613backed Gordon71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718939.3%35 W · 54 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74b2…05e0backed Garcia39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+49.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Garcia33c85.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.712446.8%58 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d94…92c9backed Gordon62c80.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.042040%8 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-41.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc485…948dbacked Gordon62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7d1…cd5ebacked Gordon62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe09f…4ad6backed Gordon62c72.89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.191855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe795…e6debacked Garcia35c71.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.433540%14 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Gordon54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.416736.5%61 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb39e…5182backed Garcia38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.631553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Garcia39c51.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.471752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Garcia39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2811138.7%43 W · 68 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Gordon61c51.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2816247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38eb…a211backed Gordon62c49.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.53663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44d6…aafdbacked Gordon62c48.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306243.5%27 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c9…cf27backed Gordon62c48.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2878…dd87backed Gordon62c48.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304540%18 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+22.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff5…89dbbacked Garcia38c45.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.314850%24 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Gordon62c44.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8218141.4%75 W · 106 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2501…472cbacked Gordon63c39.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2d…4323backed Gordon62c38.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.86451.6%33 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.