UFC · resolved market

Noche UFC: Hernandez vs. Ferreira

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6feabb92f5f2e3a87e0bbd09901b91f450c73cd712e3aa3b0290e9053a448cf

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hernandezof Hernandez, Ferreira
Resolved: Sep 13, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $444,800
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $485,099

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $444,800 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcfaa…2813backed Ferreira	51c	366,633$186,502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186,502.14	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Hernandez	49c	100,000$49,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51,000	191	54.5%104 W · 87 L	+14.9wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Hernandez	49c	85,000$41,650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43,350	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Hernandez	49c	61,200$29,988 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31,212	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+3.2wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Hernandez	49c	40,000$19,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,400	148	57.4%85 W · 63 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Hernandez	50c	29,099$14,519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,579.49	222	59.5%132 W · 90 L	+15.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Hernandez	49c	17,515$8,662 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,852.78	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Hernandez	55c	17,003$9,347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,656.26	291	51.9%151 W · 140 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hernandez	49c	12,500$6,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,375	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Hernandez	49c	6,276$3,072 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,203.3	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Hernandez	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	202	33.7%68 W · 134 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Hernandez	61c	2,606$1,599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,007.14	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Hernandez	49c	2,115$1,041 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,074.39	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Ferreira	45c	2,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	31	71%22 W · 9 L	+6.2wins	+0.20per pick	51cpaid	+47%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Ferreira	51c	1,980$1,009 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,009.32	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Hernandez	50c	1,890$945 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$945.23	65	33.8%22 W · 43 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee7e…7e73backed Hernandez	53c	1,755$930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$824.71	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Ferreira	45c	1,575$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.91	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Hernandez	49c	1,499$735 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$764.69	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Hernandez	49c	1,490$730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$759.8	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Ferreira	51c	1,482$756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$755.82	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Hernandez	49c	1,400$681 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$719.01	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	+10.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Hernandez	49c	1,300$637 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$663	167	45.5%76 W · 91 L	-6.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Hernandez	49c	1,200$588 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$612	137	35.8%49 W · 88 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Hernandez	50c	1,100$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550	162	47.5%77 W · 85 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Hernandez	48c	1,040$498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$542	277	43%119 W · 158 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Ferreira	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.15per pick	42cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3868…5683backed Hernandez	50c	1,000$499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$501	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aaf…114dbacked Hernandez	49c	1,000$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0a…9a0dbacked Ferreira	49c	999.99$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Ferreira	51c	999.41$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.7	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Hernandez	49c	844$411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$432.8	180	38.9%70 W · 110 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Hernandez	50c	800$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	69	37.7%26 W · 43 L	-7.6wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Hernandez	50c	800$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Ferreira	52c	788.62$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Hernandez	51c	782.99$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.99	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Ferreira	51c	780$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.8	111	40.5%45 W · 66 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Ferreira	50c	738$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-4.8wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd19e…fabbbacked Ferreira	49c	700$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Hernandez	49c	599.99$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Hernandez	49c	519.99$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.2	78	41%32 W · 46 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Hernandez	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	66	50%33 W · 33 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13f5…7049backed Hernandez	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Ferreira	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	100	41%41 W · 59 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Hernandez	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Hernandez	49c	490$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.9	210	44.8%94 W · 116 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…239fbacked Ferreira	52c	480.77$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Hernandez	50c	404$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Ferreira	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Ferreira	48c	337.63$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.31	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Hernandez	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	238	50.4%120 W · 118 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Ferreira	51c	283.49$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.68	366	55.2%202 W · 164 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38eb…a211backed Hernandez	51c	283.1$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.99	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	+3.7wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Ferreira	50c	262$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	248	47.2%117 W · 131 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d4…831cbacked Hernandez	50c	250$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Hernandez	50c	250$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	377	54.6%206 W · 171 L	+19.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c5…7becbacked Hernandez	49c	250$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Hernandez	48c	250$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+3.8wins	+0.27per pick	37cpaid	+104.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5cf5…ef29backed Hernandez	50c	240$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	43cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Hernandez	49c	222$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.22	32	75%24 W · 8 L	+9.5wins	+0.30per pick	45cpaid	+84.9%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0x7bbb…4a56backed Hernandez	50c	204$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.2wins	-0.24per pick	46cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Ferreira	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Hernandez	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	115	40.9%47 W · 68 L	-10.2wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Hernandez	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Ferreira	64c	200$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	263	52.1%137 W · 126 L	+23.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Hernandez	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fce…28f8backed Hernandez	50c	199.52$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.76	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.29per pick	46cpaid	+77.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Hernandez	49c	192.06$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.95	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Hernandez	49c	150$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.5	89	40.4%36 W · 53 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0186…defdbacked Hernandez	48c	142$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.22	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+6.6wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x36bc…ec72backed Hernandez	50c	140$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	158	48.1%76 W · 82 L	+9.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+10%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hernandez	48c	138.85$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.2	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Hernandez	48c	121.77$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.72	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Hernandez	50c	113.52$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.76	181	41.4%75 W · 106 L	+10.4wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Ferreira	51c	111.22$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.22	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Hernandez	50c	107.4$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.7	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Hernandez	53c	103.77$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.77	64	62.5%40 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Hernandez	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	318	55%175 W · 143 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d6…aafdbacked Hernandez	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Hernandez	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	139	40.3%56 W · 83 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Hernandez	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	226	53.1%120 W · 106 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Hernandez	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	520	52.9%275 W · 245 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Ferreira	51c	82$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.82	267	43.8%117 W · 150 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a7…8f05backed Ferreira	52c	75.58$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.3	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Ferreira	47c	73.87$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.42	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+3.6wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Hernandez	49c	71.43$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.43	324	31.8%103 W · 221 L	-9.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61e9…b13abacked Ferreira	54c	70$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.8	65	63.1%41 W · 24 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Ferreira	55c	65$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.75	131	60.3%79 W · 52 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2878…dd87backed Ferreira	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	45	40%18 W · 27 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Ferreira	48c	52.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.1	124	46.8%58 W · 66 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Hernandez	61c	51.85$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.22	79	60.8%48 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hernandez	43c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	93	36.6%34 W · 59 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c9…cf27backed Hernandez	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe795…e6debacked Hernandez	53c	47.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-4.2wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22c7…ca3ebacked Hernandez	49c	43.01$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.14	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e7…1f62backed Hernandez	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-49%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Hernandez	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Ferreira	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff5…89dbbacked Ferreira	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74b2…05e0backed Hernandez	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.21per pick	50cpaid	+49.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Noche UFC: Hernandez vs. Ferreirathis page
Noche UFC: Aguilar vs. GuruleAguilar won
Noche UFC: Costa vs. CoriaCoria won
Noche UFC: Font vs. MartinezMartinez won
Noche UFC: Garcia vs. GordonGarcia won
Noche UFC: Gastelum vs. StoltzfusGastelum won
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. SilvaLopes won
Noche UFC: Luna vs. LeLuna won
Noche UFC: Medina vs. TodorovićTodorović won
Noche UFC: Puelles vs. SilvaSilva won
Noche UFC: Rendon vs. PereiraRendon won
Noche UFC: Sezinando vs. DonchenkoDonchenko won
Noche UFC: Suarez vs. LemosSuarez won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Noche UFC: Hernandez vs. Ferreira

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event