TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lopesof Lopes, Silva
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$518,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$568,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $518,224 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ce8…4527backed Silva68c77,651$53,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,074.354744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Lopes33c52,856$17,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,291.516951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Silva2c52,589$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.898835.2%31 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Silva69c32,111$22,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,156.2614857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Lopes62c28,460$17,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,793.929151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Silva68c25,871$17,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,592.5419544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Lopes32c23,470$7,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,028.5835253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Lopes32c18,842$5,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,860.617841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Silva68c18,725$12,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,7335775.4%43 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Silva69c16,149$11,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,142.7522259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Lopes32c13,363$4,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,069.7613039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Silva40c10,055$4,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,061.8410522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Silva67c10,000$6,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,699.916049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Silva32c9,997$3,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,158.95955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lopes31c9,954$3,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,868.5137152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Silva67c9,820$6,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,627.95825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Lopes31c9,730$3,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,713.466841.2%28 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Lopes32c9,527$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,466.986645.5%30 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Lopes31c9,237$2,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,373.813545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Lopes33c9,000$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0305843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Silva66c8,945$5,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,882.0353956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x257d…aac8backed Lopes35c8,828$3,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,719.372937.9%11 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff3…d376backed Lopes32c6,195$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,224.566448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Silva34c5,969$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9721247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lopes31c5,763$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,976.198940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Silva67c5,000$3,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,349.976746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Silva68c4,853$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30035664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0a…9a0dbacked Silva67c4,656$3,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee7e…7e73backed Lopes44c4,520$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,520.47944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb406…4964backed Silva67c4,468$2,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,993.431662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Lopes33c4,382$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.027653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Silva31c4,235$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.356142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Lopes32c4,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7201533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Lopes32c4,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.9625251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Lopes31c3,700$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5531233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Silva67c3,647$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,443.413525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Lopes33c3,548$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,373.7335826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Silva66c3,542$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.488256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Lopes31c3,505$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,404.8720233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Silva67c3,434$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,305.2518453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Lopes32c3,125$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12513044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb1…830cbacked Lopes32c3,125$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Silva68c3,116$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.72564%16 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb079…b002backed Lopes33c3,033$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Silva68c3,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04017158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Silva68c3,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0403961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Lopes33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0104953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x650a…6eb2backed Lopes33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,010955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb045…d4cebacked Lopes33c2,992$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.423342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Silva66c2,500$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6602657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b5…e04fbacked Silva67c2,462$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.531450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Lopes32c2,334$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.3812134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Silva69c2,330$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.392564%16 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Silva66c2,300$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-46.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Lopes35c2,166$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.715152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Lopes32c2,154$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.366937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Silva65c2,031$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.5312052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Silva58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16037754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Silva65c2,000$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-49.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Lopes33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.9717850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Lopes39c1,990$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.8231855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Silva56c1,987$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.4513650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lopes36c1,908$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2255950.8%30 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ffc…6988backed Lopes33c1,804$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.88535.3%30 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Lopes34c1,714$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.0921554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Silva57c1,711$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.8918145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9c…900fbacked Silva67c1,628$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.817830.8%24 W · 54 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x052c…404ebacked Lopes62c1,609$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe44b…4982backed Lopes33c1,513$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.621457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Lopes34c1,500$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99026743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Lopes31c1,500$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0353171%22 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+47%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbd75…02f9backed Silva67c1,482$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c08…d3f0backed Lopes34c1,466$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.971650%8 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+45.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed Lopes35c1,429$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.571338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Lopes31c1,400$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.9919531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Silva67c1,310$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.8218560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c27…f6f9backed Silva68c1,253$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.972321.7%5 W · 18 L-5.0wins-0.22per pick43cpaid-49.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Lopes32c1,250$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.9811140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe40…2f99backed Lopes34c1,240$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.45234.6%18 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Lopes32c1,200$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8105040%20 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Lopes31c1,195$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.482842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Lopes32c1,096$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.1722342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf96c…40e1backed Lopes34c1,021$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.691747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Silva69c1,010$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7004548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Silva38c970$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.7914530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Lopes32c938$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.842231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe73f…740bbacked Lopes32c937.5$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.51154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Silva68c909.21$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd19e…fabbbacked Silva66c900$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5941662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Silva50c873.66$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.8316955.6%94 W · 75 L+23.8wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+59.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x22c7…ca3ebacked Lopes32c857.63$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.615736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8520…2a3cbacked Lopes40c741.08$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eff…ed65backed Silva68c735$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e88…cdfcbacked Silva68c734.98$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8e…a8d2backed Silva68c733$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…f1c9backed Lopes34c729.03$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Silva69c708.71$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.617960.8%48 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Lopes36c700$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4496650%33 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Silva64c700$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44823850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f16…5546backed Lopes33c694.85$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.552665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.