UFC · resolved market
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c8b7cb207cf23aea62f4c9b5bbc167a07ba8307b7556d00edd05629bb28521a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lopesof Lopes, Silva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $518,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $568,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $518,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Silva | 68c | 77,651$53,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,074.35 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Lopes | 33c | 52,856$17,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,291.5 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Silva | 2c | 52,589$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.89 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Silva | 69c | 32,111$22,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,156.26 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Lopes | 62c | 28,460$17,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,793.9 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Silva | 68c | 25,871$17,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,592.54 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Lopes | 32c | 23,470$7,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,028.58 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Lopes | 32c | 18,842$5,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,860.61 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Silva | 68c | 18,725$12,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,733 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Silva | 69c | 16,149$11,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,142.75 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Lopes | 32c | 13,363$4,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,069.76 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Silva | 40c | 10,055$4,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,061.84 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Silva | 67c | 10,000$6,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,699.9 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Silva | 32c | 9,997$3,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,158.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lopes | 31c | 9,954$3,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,868.51 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Silva | 67c | 9,820$6,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,627.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Lopes | 31c | 9,730$3,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,713.46 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Lopes | 32c | 9,527$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,466.98 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Lopes | 31c | 9,237$2,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,373.81 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Lopes | 33c | 9,000$2,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,030 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Silva | 66c | 8,945$5,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,882.03 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Lopes | 35c | 8,828$3,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,719.37 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…d376backed Lopes | 32c | 6,195$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,224.56 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Silva | 34c | 5,969$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.97 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Lopes | 31c | 5,763$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,976.19 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Silva | 67c | 5,000$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,349.97 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Silva | 68c | 4,853$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0a…9a0dbacked Silva | 67c | 4,656$3,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…7e73backed Lopes | 44c | 4,520$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Silva | 67c | 4,468$2,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,993.43 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Lopes | 33c | 4,382$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,936.02 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Silva | 31c | 4,235$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.35 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Lopes | 32c | 4,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Lopes | 32c | 4,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,719.96 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Lopes | 31c | 3,700$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,553 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Silva | 67c | 3,647$2,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,443.41 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Lopes | 33c | 3,548$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,373.73 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Silva | 66c | 3,542$2,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.48 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Lopes | 31c | 3,505$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.87 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Silva | 67c | 3,434$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,305.25 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…59eabacked Lopes | 32c | 3,125$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb1…830cbacked Lopes | 32c | 3,125$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Silva | 68c | 3,116$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.7 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb079…b002backed Lopes | 33c | 3,033$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Silva | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Silva | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Lopes | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…6eb2backed Lopes | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d4cebacked Lopes | 33c | 2,992$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.42 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Silva | 66c | 2,500$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b5…e04fbacked Silva | 67c | 2,462$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Lopes | 32c | 2,334$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.38 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1331…3d82backed Silva | 69c | 2,330$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.39 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Silva | 66c | 2,300$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Lopes | 35c | 2,166$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.71 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Lopes | 32c | 2,154$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.36 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Silva | 65c | 2,031$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.53 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Silva | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Silva | 65c | 2,000$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Lopes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.97 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Lopes | 39c | 1,990$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.82 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Silva | 56c | 1,987$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.45 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Lopes | 36c | 1,908$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Lopes | 33c | 1,804$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.8 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Lopes | 34c | 1,714$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.09 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Silva | 57c | 1,711$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.89 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Silva | 67c | 1,628$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.81 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked Lopes | 62c | 1,609$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…4982backed Lopes | 33c | 1,513$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Lopes | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Lopes | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +47%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd75…02f9backed Silva | 67c | 1,482$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…d3f0backed Lopes | 34c | 1,466$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed Lopes | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Lopes | 31c | 1,400$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.99 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Silva | 67c | 1,310$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.82 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…f6f9backed Silva | 68c | 1,253$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.97 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Lopes | 32c | 1,250$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.98 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe40…2f99backed Lopes | 34c | 1,240$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.4 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Lopes | 32c | 1,200$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…85a4backed Lopes | 31c | 1,195$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.48 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Lopes | 32c | 1,096$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.17 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…40e1backed Lopes | 34c | 1,021$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Silva | 69c | 1,010$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Silva | 38c | 970$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.79 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Lopes | 32c | 938$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.84 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe73f…740bbacked Lopes | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Silva | 68c | 909.21$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…fabbbacked Silva | 66c | 900$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Silva | 50c | 873.66$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.83 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Lopes | 32c | 857.63$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.61 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8520…2a3cbacked Lopes | 40c | 741.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eff…ed65backed Silva | 68c | 735$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e88…cdfcbacked Silva | 68c | 734.98$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…a8d2backed Silva | 68c | 733$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…f1c9backed Lopes | 34c | 729.03$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Silva | 69c | 708.71$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.61 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Lopes | 36c | 700$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Silva | 64c | 700$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f16…5546backed Lopes | 33c | 694.85$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.55 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silvathis page
- Noche UFC: Aguilar vs. GuruleAguilar won
- Noche UFC: Costa vs. CoriaCoria won
- Noche UFC: Font vs. MartinezMartinez won
- Noche UFC: Garcia vs. GordonGarcia won
- Noche UFC: Gastelum vs. StoltzfusGastelum won
- Noche UFC: Hernandez vs. FerreiraHernandez won
- Noche UFC: Luna vs. LeLuna won
- Noche UFC: Medina vs. TodorovićTodorović won
- Noche UFC: Puelles vs. SilvaSilva won
- Noche UFC: Rendon vs. PereiraRendon won
- Noche UFC: Sezinando vs. DonchenkoDonchenko won
- Noche UFC: Suarez vs. LemosSuarez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.