Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Muller vs. Rune
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdecb7b88feef12ab5ab90b799d323e91d43ac32c335db94cf4a8598d82af4cf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune of Muller , Rune
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Muller | 23c | 10,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.99 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Rune | 77c | 3,661$2,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.12 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Muller | 3c | 3,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Rune | 77c | 3,004$2,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.52 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Muller | 20c | 1,929$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.88 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…506cbacked Rune | 80c | 1,879$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Rune | 78c | 1,400$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.98 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rune | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rune | 76c | 989.1$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.38 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed Rune | 77c | 982$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.86 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Rune | 77c | 900$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Muller | 20c | 802.47$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.47 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Rune | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…7e36backed Rune | 78c | 618.58$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.09 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rune | 76c | 526.79$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Rune | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Rune | 79c | 456.96$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Muller | 24c | 420.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Muller | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Muller | 22c | 400.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rune | 77c | 397$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Muller | 22c | 251.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Muller | 21c | 238$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Rune | 79c | 226.9$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Muller | 21c | 199.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rune | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…e5f7backed Rune | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Muller | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…64e0backed Muller | 22c | 122.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Muller | 20c | 117.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a33…83abbacked Muller | 22c | 107.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Muller | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…35dcbacked Rune | 77c | 96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35a…2157backed Muller | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Rune | 79c | 80.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Muller | 21c | 76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Rune | 79c | 69.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Rune | 80c | 66.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked Rune | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…42e0backed Muller | 22c | 61.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Rune | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Rune | 77c | 26.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932c…b1fdbacked Rune | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.