Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Learner Tien vs Lorenzo Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5064c868dfcc941971c755be2278f1a4a636294a55e0d85f453ee4b53d6615f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Tien, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Tien | 70c | 2,304$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.65 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Musetti | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6937…085dbacked Musetti | 70c | 1,326$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Tien | 30c | 944.26$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.4 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Musetti | 72c | 692.16$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tien | 68c | 687.86$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.25 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tien | 48c | 670$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.14 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tien | 27c | 638.23$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.91 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Tien | 32c | 616.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.72 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Musetti | 75c | 604.15$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.91 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Tien | 28c | 517.64$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.7 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Tien | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tien | 30c | 423.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.62 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Tien | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Tien | 23c | 300.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.57 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Musetti | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Musetti | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Tien | 30c | 200$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.33 | 253 | 42.7%108 W · 145 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Musetti | 72c | 176.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Tien | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.78 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Musetti | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Musetti | 69c | 141.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Tien | 31c | 141.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Musetti | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Musetti | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Musetti | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Tien | 31c | 87.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tien | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked Musetti | 68c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Musetti | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Musetti | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tien | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Musetti | 65c | 61.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Tien | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Musetti | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Musetti | 64c | 37.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…8885backed Tien | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…8b5dbacked Musetti | 74c | 17.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…126ebacked Musetti | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.