Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Musetti vs. Michelsen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd62695fbb16608f9b2f78c00e6e5a40693f9064299e495590b809c456969efee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michelsenof Musetti, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Michelsen | 46c | 18,255$8,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,775.72 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Michelsen | 38c | 13,665$5,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,422.26 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Musetti | 65c | 8,092$5,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,254.04 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Michelsen | 27c | 6,565$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,813.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Michelsen | 40c | 3,898$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.66 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Michelsen | 36c | 3,466$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,217.96 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Musetti | 69c | 3,403$2,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.63 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Musetti | 60c | 3,265$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,962.17 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Michelsen | 36c | 2,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Michelsen | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.98 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Michelsen | 39c | 1,718$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.37 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Musetti | 64c | 1,709$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.92 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Musetti | 63c | 1,362$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.66 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Michelsen | 39c | 1,136$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.71 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Musetti | 40c | 1,009$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.85 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Michelsen | 37c | 999.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Musetti | 64c | 946.88$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.8 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Michelsen | 13c | 784.52$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Musetti | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Michelsen | 38c | 749.92$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.95 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…506cbacked Michelsen | 30c | 700$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Musetti | 62c | 699.86$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.91 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Musetti | 34c | 678.24$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Musetti | 64c | 600$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.28 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Michelsen | 34c | 539$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.38 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Musetti | 62c | 360$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +2,130.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Musetti | 14c | 306.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 107 | 29%31 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Michelsen | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Michelsen | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Musetti | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…f88dbacked Musetti | 72c | 224.4$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Musetti | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Michelsen | 36c | 199.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.72 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Musetti | 73c | 191.41$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked Musetti | 61c | 189.68$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Musetti | 37c | 172$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Musetti | 63c | 168.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Musetti | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Musetti | 64c | 156.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…06f3backed Musetti | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Musetti | 64c | 155.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Musetti | 64c | 150.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…64e0backed Michelsen | 40c | 147.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Musetti | 26c | 146.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Musetti | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 650 | 40%260 W · 390 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Musetti | 63c | 133.32$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Musetti | 12c | 128.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a33…83abbacked Michelsen | 39c | 103.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Michelsen | 80c | 95.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…facbbacked Musetti | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Musetti | 63c | 85.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked Musetti | 61c | 85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Michelsen | 39c | 80.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Musetti | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…0e28backed Musetti | 52c | 69.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked Musetti | 64c | 68.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Musetti | 77c | 51.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Musetti | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Musetti | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 239 | 69.9%167 W · 72 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…6be0backed Musetti | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…f925backed Michelsen | 39c | 41.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Musetti | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Michelsen | 39c | 39.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35a…2157backed Michelsen | 39c | 37.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Musetti | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Musetti | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Musetti | 62c | 28.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Michelsen | 39c | 26.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…c992backed Musetti | 62c | 26.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Musetti | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Musetti | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Musetti | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2781…cf25backed Musetti | 64c | 16.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.