Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Rublev vs. Etcheverry
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc13f8abcb29aa7543557a53c2999f0f6cf720855d2baf9534721ea3b8dc8834d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Etcheverryof Rublev, Etcheverry
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Etcheverry | 62c | 12,134$7,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,576.87 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Rublev | 33c | 11,297$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rublev | 66c | 5,718$3,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,776.23 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Etcheverry | 45c | 5,612$2,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,076.66 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Etcheverry | 21c | 4,766$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,753.38 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Rublev | 79c | 3,292$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Etcheverry | 53c | 2,668$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.56 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Etcheverry | 31c | 2,481$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.3 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Rublev | 74c | 1,780$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.77 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Rublev | 42c | 1,544$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Etcheverry | 51c | 1,525$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.88 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Rublev | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Rublev | 73c | 1,482$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.13 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Etcheverry | 36c | 1,237$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.89 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Etcheverry | 21c | 1,154$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.66 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308e…def2backed Etcheverry | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Etcheverry | 19c | 997.07$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.63 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Etcheverry | 63c | 726.4$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.83 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Etcheverry | 55c | 716.9$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.56 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rublev | 63c | 603.71$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.68 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…acedbacked Rublev | 80c | 595$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Rublev | 51c | 561.74$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.48 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Rublev | 44c | 456.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Rublev | 71c | 440$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.5 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Rublev | 65c | 406.5$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.16 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…b5babacked Rublev | 46c | 405$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…1822backed Rublev | 80c | 405$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Etcheverry | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Rublev | 78c | 299.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.99 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Etcheverry | 62c | 289.89$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.89 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Etcheverry | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Etcheverry | 40c | 257$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.66 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Etcheverry | 23c | 235.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.66 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…2248backed Rublev | 42c | 192.67$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Rublev | 38c | 191.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Etcheverry | 36c | 187.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Rublev | 36c | 152.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rublev | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rublev | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Rublev | 73c | 120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…8088backed Etcheverry | 61c | 112.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Etcheverry | 54c | 88.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff5…3798backed Rublev | 70c | 73.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Etcheverry | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Rublev | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2a…43d5backed Rublev | 80c | 53.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Etcheverry | 22c | 49.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Etcheverry | 57c | 47.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Etcheverry | 45c | 40.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked Rublev | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…c6adbacked Etcheverry | 79c | 37.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Etcheverry | 65c | 37.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Rublev | 63c | 33.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Etcheverry | 80c | 30.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Rublev | 46c | 28.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…8935backed Etcheverry | 59c | 25.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6657…a414backed Rublev | 57c | 24.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…c017backed Rublev | 59c | 21.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…f7edbacked Rublev | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.