Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Halys vs. Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e9ff32e8d686fe43bf217aa50acbfd92c0db689796bef454ce67cd5f2be69d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Halys, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Halys | 11c | 3,841$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.26 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Halys | 22c | 2,921$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.52 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Halys | 8c | 2,901$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.11 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Halys | 20c | 2,008$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.5 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Medvedev | 69c | 2,000$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.52 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Halys | 29c | 1,370$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.5 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…93e7backed Medvedev | 70c | 1,149$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Halys | 32c | 1,071$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.83 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Halys | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Halys | 30c | 978.63$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.59 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Medvedev | 68c | 759.24$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.96 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Medvedev | 70c | 699.97$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Medvedev | 72c | 699.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.23 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Halys | 29c | 699.22$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.36 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Medvedev | 68c | 599.99$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Medvedev | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Halys | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Halys | 29c | 339.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Halys | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Halys | 34c | 249.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Medvedev | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…e6a5backed Halys | 32c | 158.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Medvedev | 71c | 154.75$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Medvedev | 70c | 142.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Medvedev | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Medvedev | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Halys | 27c | 111.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Halys | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Halys | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Medvedev | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Halys | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Medvedev | 68c | 60.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…61b0backed Medvedev | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Halys | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Medvedev | 67c | 41.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…f7edbacked Medvedev | 72c | 40.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c99backed Halys | 31c | 38.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked Medvedev | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Medvedev | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13ed…0a75backed Medvedev | 70c | 23.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.