Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa369619d83dde03b384844674fad655f92bab05b034a1c540e78d7f828a37b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $414,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $414,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $414,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 494 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 43c | 25,807$11,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,065.4 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 56c | 25,555$14,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,161.49 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 58c | 17,489$10,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,090.75 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 55c | 13,309$7,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,330.87 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 57c | 12,972$7,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,548.68 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 63c | 9,361$5,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,502.1 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 12c | 8,937$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 74c | 8,515$6,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219.37 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 30c | 7,842$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.58 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 50c | 5,703$2,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.28 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 4c | 5,605$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 50c | 4,400$2,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 27c | 3,814$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,779.63 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 55c | 3,508$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.41 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…06c0backed Yes | 59c | 3,494$2,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,047.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 41c | 3,493$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.06 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 3,302$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,906.58 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 55c | 3,278$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.65 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 55c | 3,173$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.81 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 27c | 3,164$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.36 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…1761backed Yes | 76c | 3,160$2,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,408.86 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f2…3718backed Yes | 31c | 3,058$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 38c | 2,948$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,832.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 36c | 2,732$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.68 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 17c | 2,657$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.02 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 43c | 2,500$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.99 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…129abacked Yes | 62c | 2,429$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed Yes | 63c | 2,384$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,293$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 56c | 2,214$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.66 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 2,067$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.08 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 71c | 2,033$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 57c | 2,028$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.61 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 35c | 1,993$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 1,971$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.27 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed No | 36c | 1,923$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.28 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…2fa9backed No | 60c | 1,906$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.27 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes | 54c | 1,860$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 1,848$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.25 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 58c | 1,809$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.48 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…8fd4backed Yes | 59c | 1,747$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 35c | 1,684$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.58 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…86abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,672$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 48c | 1,579$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.8 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8656…82f8backed Yes | 60c | 1,510$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2063backed Yes | 42c | 1,500$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…b429backed No | 53c | 1,449$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…cb39backed No | 44c | 1,420$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.58 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 19c | 1,389$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.55 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 35c | 1,387$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.89 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…0938backed No | 74c | 1,344$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 32c | 1,300$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 56c | 1,279$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.03 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 73c | 1,270$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.99 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 37c | 1,268$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.51 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…575fbacked No | 48c | 1,252$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1305…125dbacked No | 76c | 1,249$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 26c | 1,230$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 44c | 1,200$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 42c | 1,199$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 50c | 1,196$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.33 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 50c | 1,186$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.31 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 35c | 1,134$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…6990backed Yes | 44c | 1,134$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked No | 62c | 1,129$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.55 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 63c | 1,094$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.16 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…bdf4backed No | 56c | 1,085$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 46c | 1,082$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…9fe4backed No | 14c | 1,069$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 67c | 1,027$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +172%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7b…facbbacked No | 50c | 1,024$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5212…b762backed No | 77c | 1,023$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 1,011$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.16 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 42c | 1,006$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.33 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…2c6bbacked No | 50c | 1,002$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 74c | 1,000$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…b162backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…029bbacked Yes | 2c | 975.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 30c | 973.11$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 966$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked No | 58c | 900$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ca…055abacked No | 14c | 900$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +625.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d36…2a3bbacked Yes | 9c | 889.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +97%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 11c | 827.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 48c | 812.87$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.01 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 53c | 810.21$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.22 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…5117backed No | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 37cpaid | +204.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b76…76a2backed Yes | 33c | 789.2$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…9211backed No | 71c | 777.82$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.03 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 79c | 775$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.35 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 63c | 768.49$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.08 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 52c | 751.34$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…4890backed No | 13c | 750$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +245.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed No | 74c | 739.64$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed No | 73c | 730$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f74…0319backed Yes | 48c | 726.11$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…206dbacked Yes | 15c | 720$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.