TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$414,628
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$414,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $414,628 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 494 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8631…9a73backed Yes43c25,807$11,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,065.48549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No56c25,555$14,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,161.4924258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes58c17,489$10,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,090.7511647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed Yes55c13,309$7,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,330.874535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No57c12,972$7,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,548.6814750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No63c9,361$5,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,502.112547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes12c8,937$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.79742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No74c8,515$6,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.376647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes30c7,842$2,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,367.5825311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No50c5,703$2,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,865.2813230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed Yes4c5,605$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2242222.7%5 W · 17 L-5.6wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-66.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No50c4,400$2,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2182737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No27c3,814$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.6314456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes55c3,508$1,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,945.417848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xffea…06c0backed Yes59c3,494$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.35450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+73.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes41c3,493$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.063912.8%5 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c3,302$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,906.584117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No55c3,278$1,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.6515451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No55c3,173$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.817843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes27c3,164$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.366030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b92…1761backed Yes76c3,160$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,408.861580%12 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+41.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2f2…3718backed Yes31c3,058$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74bf…2a6ebacked No38c2,948$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.89977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes36c2,732$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.683228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes17c2,657$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.023727%10 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No43c2,500$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.993729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f58…129abacked Yes62c2,429$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.112138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…d7b3backed Yes63c2,384$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+112.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes6c2,293$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes56c2,214$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.666450%32 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes26c2,067$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.0817232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No71c2,033$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed Yes57c2,028$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.615563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7003461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+34.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No35c1,993$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.682759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+33.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No73c1,971$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.2726835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x935a…6235backed No36c1,923$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.284447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87cd…2fa9backed No60c1,906$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.271952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes54c1,860$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.391136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No29c1,848$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.2526318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes58c1,809$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.4814355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9343…8fd4backed Yes59c1,747$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.7320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed No35c1,684$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.583262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x475a…86abbacked Yes1c1,672$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes48c1,579$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.823435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8656…82f8backed Yes60c1,510$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x967e…2063backed Yes42c1,500$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick34cpaid+78.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f64…b429backed No53c1,449$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x610a…cb39backed No44c1,420$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.581546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes19c1,389$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.552218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes35c1,387$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.891323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd96…0938backed No74c1,344$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes32c1,300$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4118639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked Yes56c1,279$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.037462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No73c1,270$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.991963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed No37c1,268$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.515561.8%34 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6183…575fbacked No48c1,252$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.65966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1305…125dbacked No76c1,249$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No26c1,230$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.21717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9290…3452backed Yes44c1,200$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5272850%14 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes42c1,199$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002040%8 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5fd8…7100backed No50c1,196$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.336442.2%27 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked No50c1,186$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.313764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+53.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Yes35c1,134$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3938055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x524b…6990backed Yes44c1,134$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+73.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfffe…4e6cbacked No62c1,129$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.554060%24 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No63c1,094$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.166357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23c3…bdf4backed No56c1,085$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes46c1,082$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa872…9fe4backed No14c1,069$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.71560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+135.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed No67c1,027$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+172%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb7b…facbbacked No50c1,024$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.11450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5212…b762backed No77c1,023$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+126.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c1,011$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.1630837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No42c1,006$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.333650%18 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ae…2c6bbacked No50c1,002$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+0.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002638.5%10 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed No74c1,000$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2653461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…b162backed Yes49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4e…029bbacked Yes2c975.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes30c973.11$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2952055%11 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c966$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.135327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked No58c900$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3783727%10 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73ca…055abacked No14c900$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7761100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+625.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d36…2a3bbacked Yes9c889.15$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+97%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes11c827.06$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.510426%27 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes48c812.87$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.0114239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47dc…c27ebacked No53c810.21$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.222748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5642…5117backed No48c800$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4162100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick37cpaid+204.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b76…76a2backed Yes33c789.2$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.561250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cc…9211backed No71c777.82$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.033366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No79c775$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.352462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No63c768.49$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.087548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked No52c751.34$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.64862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c16…4890backed No13c750$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+245.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed No74c739.64$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed No73c730$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.41233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f74…0319backed Yes48c726.11$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccb…206dbacked Yes15c720$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.