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Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,428
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,428 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3910…7ba2backed Yes30c6,452$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,931.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No71c3,671$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.077462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes33c2,294$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.9711839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc83f…b7a9backed No74c1,775$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb75…446dbacked Yes36c1,477$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.91625%4 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2415…f255backed Yes5c1,370$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No69c1,357$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.286640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed No78c1,215$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.81631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No70c1,191$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.126654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes26c1,118$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.8614355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c3…8c6ebacked Yes5c1,047$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a28…6129backed Yes5c1,030$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c1,020$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.2230837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe45…4b8fbacked Yes5c1,020$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2889…fc69backed No74c1,013$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.156061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7145…1d17backed Yes5c973$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d73…94e7backed Yes5c966$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8d…0443backed Yes5c953$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b6…67b5backed Yes5c950$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9290…3452backed Yes24c899.21$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.742850%14 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3a0…a157backed Yes8c810$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e77…7bd2backed Yes5c807.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b1…016ebacked Yes5c807.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be7…d97ebacked Yes8c775.42$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d0e…8f54backed Yes3c770$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eaf…6418backed Yes7c760$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5204…d25ebacked Yes3c726.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes16c724.12$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9635341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb94a…a623backed No73c682.8$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.83043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40e4…1000backed Yes7c670$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe73f…d210backed Yes7c670$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81be…a08cbacked Yes3c660$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…9eb1backed Yes5c660$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dff…a3b5backed Yes3c651$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02f…175bbacked Yes35c635.97$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c611.76$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20226835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes30c579.6$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.331926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No70c577$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.11770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed No67c487.5$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.85650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e4…b031backed Yes18c467.96$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No80c467.84$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7213128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa4b…38a0backed No77c431.12$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd12f…3359backed No72c418.06$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88db…4228backed No56c357.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.32568%17 W · 8 L+7.0wins+0.28per pick40cpaid+219.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd987…20b6backed Yes6c337.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30cb…b901backed No68c333$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes18c316.42$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.225655.4%31 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x703d…80f6backed No70c305.42$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.362934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.9wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x34b0…af3cbacked No70c284.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed No71c281.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes21c277.59$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.21024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No64c270.04$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9414150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x759b…3695backed No77c258.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No68c252$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.64875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b3…cfd0backed Yes32c245.02$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.751233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+45.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15b5…072ebacked Yes31c239.17$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+79.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes18c227.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.947735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No66c204.44$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.782352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes18c204.23$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0917232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No70c191$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.866357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf155…76bdbacked No67c190.03$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.71580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No34c189.54$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.14628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes18c165.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.132250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No73c153.27$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.065337.7%20 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes14c151.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3411645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes44c150$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d0f…e413backed No70c143.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f48…05acbacked No74c141.25$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed No70c139.78$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.46650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked Yes18c138.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.296136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb225…d4a1backed No73c136.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5144…37c9backed No63c135.93$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.782147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+164.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes20c135.74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.721844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No64c133$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.882638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf01a…f231backed Yes26c129.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.81872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+50.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb896…ac39backed No70c129.57$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.153100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffef…dabfbacked No68c128$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c126.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.385327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecc5…5fdebacked Yes39c120$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x028c…bc32backed No70c114.29$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f28…13d6backed No67c112.89$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.891060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b58…9a40backed Yes27c112.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa0…72d6backed No61c112.7$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.951855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b22…3a92backed Yes19c112.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.626944.9%31 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x726c…6bfdbacked No69c110.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+242.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1583…bddebacked No71c103.34$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.34785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes30c101.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.983351.5%17 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+45.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.27656.6%43 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed No78c99.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a9c…85b0backed Yes32c95.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked No68c94$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07f…faadbacked Yes33c92.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x138d…5b75backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes32c90.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.074544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x083f…a55fbacked No56c89.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.254932.7%16 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1536…7f40backed No67c88$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes44c84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.961650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae19…5cb0backed Yes43c83.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.