TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$170,006
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$177,096

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,006 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes69c14,100$9,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,753.9624258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked No25c10,000$2,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,548.981127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes64c5,397$3,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,451.1814750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d5c…55dfbacked No40c5,384$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,228.023560%21 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes72c5,111$3,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,665.4711647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes79c3,935$3,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,125.897848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No62c3,899$2,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.8514355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes56c3,236$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.553912.8%5 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes52c2,765$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.371926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes65c2,272$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.251978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+48.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No32c2,224$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.0815125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed Yes20c2,054$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.381643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2758…a3afbacked No32c2,014$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8c…e548backed No36c1,897$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No27c1,861$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.082737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No28c1,785$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.076547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88e3…f598backed Yes18c1,783$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed No30c1,546$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.191233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-21.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe485…f7eebacked No22c1,529$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes16c1,513$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.567518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfba…7567backed No34c1,492$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.62683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+59%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc327…a208backed No43c1,466$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7402…4047backed No48c1,465$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.48580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+119.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a86…4216backed Yes69c1,457$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf130…88ddbacked Yes70c1,428$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.64153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b6…3961backed No43c1,418$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.854736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked Yes56c1,342$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.017462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd5d7…4952backed No46c1,263$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.771631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-50.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes73c1,207$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.855143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes48c1,200$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.2813622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes67c1,141$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.693943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9290…3452backed Yes51c1,100$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.992850%14 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed Yes52c1,011$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.418549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed No46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6e2…c890backed No72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e82…c878backed Yes53c999.97$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bc5…db85backed Yes74c999.96$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.97540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ed…7a3fbacked Yes53c955$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d74…3163backed No22c915.54$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.844100%4 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+211.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed No40c895.44$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.715133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes63c787.05$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.052035%7 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No30c786.19$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.131957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes62c785.87$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.173237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes72c727.83$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.081827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ae…8598backed Yes54c708$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee25…7cd3backed No31c707.82$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.914131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd79a…7e51backed Yes66c661.45$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes14c650$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-78.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes12c644.11$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9317232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a81…d324backed No64c627.94$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.94922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes53c624.59$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.698639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c620.32$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.2226835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Yes66c606.49$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.041233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa22e…109cbacked Yes55c602$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed No38c599.99$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.996028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad82…1075backed No34c585.93$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.93862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+48.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes34c584.12$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.11546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+178.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c573.6$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.0730837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5601…4ef8backed No44c568.17$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed No26c545.22$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.433560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4403…fcefbacked Yes59c510.18$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8b…d11abacked No40c505.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad3…faa6backed Yes78c502.09$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.22070%14 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe16e…da41backed Yes67c500$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.1320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fa0…72d6backed No20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbab5…15c5backed No20c497.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.76560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+126%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddae…5d62backed Yes74c492$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.413243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed No47c484$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0848…ffbebacked No32c477.83$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.91540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No47c471$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.63450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b8…deb6backed No46c466.28$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6f41backed No46c461$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x881e…b439backed No44c457.85$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91af…95c8backed Yes54c452$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5144…37c9backed No50c442.85$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.862147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+164.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8861…61bbbacked No18c414.58$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+90%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc948…33a1backed No24c409$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa641…4af9backed No25c408.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+104%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd8…7100backed No25c400.8$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.46442.2%27 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3032…99e7backed No41c397.65$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.53850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b51…da79backed No23c392.37$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.134235.7%15 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes71c389.52$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.534060%24 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No32c375.26$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.2135341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7930…b208backed No31c371.31$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.621361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.28per pick33cpaid+59.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa64…7e3dbacked No36c371.09$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.022343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed Yes54c352$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed No20c327$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+150%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed Yes71c319.98$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.195561.8%34 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc771…e858backed No47c313$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked No45c307.43$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84b…b3dcbacked No34c304.18$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+94.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes74c300$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2222030%6 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd940…8d04backed Yes70c300$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2091154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e38…2e89backed No21c300$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2363100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+193%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes57c299.99$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1716933.3%23 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes54c299.98$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.992218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No19c288.38$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.371039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No26c288.29$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.36357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No78c282.65$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1815855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed No41c280.87$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.957360.3%44 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.