Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc11a6a29ad4dbe16920928339cd9ad3bf3f9a2ab63e52ff5bfb8d177cdfb4d35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 69c | 14,100$9,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,753.96 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 25c | 10,000$2,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,548.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 64c | 5,397$3,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,451.18 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 40c | 5,384$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,228.02 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 72c | 5,111$3,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,665.47 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 79c | 3,935$3,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125.89 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 62c | 3,899$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.85 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 56c | 3,236$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.55 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 52c | 2,765$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.37 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 65c | 2,272$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.25 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 32c | 2,224$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.08 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 20c | 2,054$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…a3afbacked No | 32c | 2,014$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…e548backed No | 36c | 1,897$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 27c | 1,861$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.08 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 28c | 1,785$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.07 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…f598backed Yes | 18c | 1,783$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed No | 30c | 1,546$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe485…f7eebacked No | 22c | 1,529$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,513$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.56 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…7567backed No | 34c | 1,492$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…a208backed No | 43c | 1,466$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…4047backed No | 48c | 1,465$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4216backed Yes | 69c | 1,457$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 70c | 1,428$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 43c | 1,418$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.85 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 56c | 1,342$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.01 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 46c | 1,263$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.77 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 73c | 1,207$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.85 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 48c | 1,200$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.28 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 67c | 1,141$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.69 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 51c | 1,100$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.99 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 52c | 1,011$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.41 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed No | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…c890backed No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…c878backed Yes | 53c | 999.97$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc5…db85backed Yes | 74c | 999.96$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…7a3fbacked Yes | 53c | 955$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…3163backed No | 22c | 915.54$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +211.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 40c | 895.44$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.71 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes | 63c | 787.05$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.05 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 30c | 786.19$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.13 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 62c | 785.87$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.17 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 72c | 727.83$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 54c | 708$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 31c | 707.82$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.91 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…7e51backed Yes | 66c | 661.45$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 14c | 650$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 644.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…d324backed No | 64c | 627.94$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 53c | 624.59$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.69 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 620.32$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.22 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed Yes | 66c | 606.49$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 55c | 602$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed No | 38c | 599.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.99 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad82…1075backed No | 34c | 585.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 34c | 584.12$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 573.6$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.07 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5601…4ef8backed No | 44c | 568.17$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 26c | 545.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.43 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…fcefbacked Yes | 59c | 510.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…d11abacked No | 40c | 505.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…faa6backed Yes | 78c | 502.09$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe16e…da41backed Yes | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab5…15c5backed No | 20c | 497.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +126%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 74c | 492$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.41 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed No | 47c | 484$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked No | 32c | 477.83$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 47c | 471$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b8…deb6backed No | 46c | 466.28$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 46c | 461$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…b439backed No | 44c | 457.85$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed Yes | 54c | 452$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…37c9backed No | 50c | 442.85$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.86 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…61bbbacked No | 18c | 414.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…33a1backed No | 24c | 409$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa641…4af9backed No | 25c | 408.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 25c | 400.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 41c | 397.65$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 23c | 392.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.13 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 71c | 389.52$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.53 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 32c | 375.26$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.21 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7930…b208backed No | 31c | 371.31$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.62 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 33cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…7e3dbacked No | 36c | 371.09$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.02 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 54c | 352$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 20c | 327$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 71c | 319.98$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.19 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed No | 47c | 313$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 45c | 307.43$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…b3dcbacked No | 34c | 304.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…8d04backed Yes | 70c | 300$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…2e89backed No | 21c | 300$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +193%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 54c | 299.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 19c | 288.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.37 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 26c | 288.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.3 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 78c | 282.65$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 41c | 280.87$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.95 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.