Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb49a2d10b3a7638874ce52f167c82f484acbaa7e5ae1a36d74805e5842b26257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $211,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 20c | 17,430$3,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,530.66 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 11c | 13,563$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.72 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…1eecbacked No | 5c | 13,086$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 10c | 11,127$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 16c | 6,766$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.45 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 10c | 6,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked No | 10c | 5,347$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 14c | 4,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 78c | 3,504$2,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.06 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 20c | 3,314$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.32 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 19c | 3,025$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.3 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa086…0b37backed No | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 64c | 2,609$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.26 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 9c | 2,322$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 9c | 2,235$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.66 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 14c | 2,210$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.97 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…7e3dbacked No | 32c | 1,960$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 19c | 1,880$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.66 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 65c | 1,705$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.94 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 5c | 1,432$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +269.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 7c | 1,343$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 18c | 1,322$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.53 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…5057backed No | 7c | 1,268$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 18c | 1,204$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 11c | 1,136$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.78 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,129$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,126$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 24c | 1,124$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.16 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed No | 25c | 1,081$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.19 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…284fbacked No | 23c | 1,004$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 20cpaid | +183.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eec…f4e2backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +585.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed No | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 19c | 969$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 953.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 78c | 897.95$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.44 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9253…344cbacked No | 34c | 881.1$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 17c | 799.97$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 16c | 715.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 19c | 712$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed Yes | 63c | 707.26$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.26 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 18c | 706.06$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 19c | 612$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 32c | 596.94$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed No | 17c | 587.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…4f84backed No | 8c | 579.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 20c | 527.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.07 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…7442backed No | 8c | 458.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 21c | 425.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 25c | 409.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebf…a29bbacked No | 35c | 406.69$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 396.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 23c | 385.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdace…6e90backed Yes | 68c | 385.17$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…9a40backed Yes | 67c | 374.69$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 78c | 359.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed No | 18c | 309.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 64c | 301.3$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked No | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 67c | 299.98$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 11c | 288.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed No | 14c | 249.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 16c | 224.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 19c | 220.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked No | 19c | 220.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +239.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 77c | 216.18$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ca…67aebacked No | 6c | 206.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed Yes | 63c | 195.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 55c | 180$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 179.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bf…dbe7backed No | 20c | 176.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +348.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…3f5abacked No | 18c | 175.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 18c | 175$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb625…415bbacked No | 36c | 166.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 19c | 163.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 21c | 160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…a7b6backed No | 13c | 157.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 21c | 151.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 42c | 149.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf932…00a1backed No | 21c | 149.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf98…ffc6backed Yes | 67c | 148.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 12c | 141$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fc…b7fabacked No | 18c | 140.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…2f21backed No | 36c | 139.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…2e99backed No | 24c | 124.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 17c | 123$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed Yes | 68c | 122.96$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 77c | 120.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 79c | 117.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c4…cb3bbacked No | 12c | 117.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…8895backed No | 13c | 111.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes | 58c | 108.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.