Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe992806e2dac69c842929f75965f8c8e7e0e6a2233a55dc7718835725be6605e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vacherotof Rune, Vacherot
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Rune | 71c | 9,999$7,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,058.25 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Vacherot | 32c | 8,572$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,810.89 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Vacherot | 25c | 8,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Rune | 4c | 7,892$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.68 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6eb…3fcdbacked Rune | 70c | 7,585$5,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,287 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Vacherot | 33c | 6,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,020 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…4253backed Rune | 1c | 5,083$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Rune | 69c | 4,650$3,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,194 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…5fbfbacked Vacherot | 27c | 4,189$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,056.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Rune | 75c | 3,493$2,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,614.55 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Rune | 73c | 3,400$2,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,482 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -16.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vacherot | 28c | 2,856$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,043.69 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Rune | 77c | 2,500$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…5562backed Vacherot | 31c | 2,341$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.06 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Vacherot | 31c | 2,250$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.96 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Vacherot | 32c | 2,236$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.27 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Vacherot | 27c | 2,097$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.14 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Rune | 6c | 1,900$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Rune | 77c | 1,304$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Rune | 77c | 1,298$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.49 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Vacherot | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.25 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Vacherot | 23c | 1,200$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.99 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Rune | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Vacherot | 27c | 992.59$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.59 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Vacherot | 18c | 920$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.11 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rune | 9c | 851$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…074dbacked Vacherot | 13c | 800$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Rune | 69c | 722.41$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.46 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Rune | 74c | 671$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.54 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa91…eac3backed Rune | 76c | 649.15$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Rune | 11c | 591$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Rune | 75c | 575$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.95 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f8…a24dbacked Vacherot | 27c | 574.07$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Rune | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Rune | 25c | 427.87$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Vacherot | 24c | 400$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…bc46backed Vacherot | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Vacherot | 24c | 363.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.38 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Vacherot | 26c | 338.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.37 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Vacherot | 22c | 319.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.67 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Vacherot | 22c | 305$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.9 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vacherot | 23c | 291.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.99 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Vacherot | 39c | 289.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.01 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rune | 77c | 285.71$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Vacherot | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Vacherot | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Rune | 69c | 169$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Vacherot | 23c | 141.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Rune | 70c | 141.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…e058backed Vacherot | 35c | 138.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Rune | 75c | 137.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Rune | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rune | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe032…61f2backed Vacherot | 25c | 118.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Vacherot | 25c | 115.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Vacherot | 26c | 111.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Vacherot | 31c | 111.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rune | 74c | 103.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rune | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Vacherot | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Rune | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked Rune | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Rune | 78c | 96.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Vacherot | 23c | 87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Rune | 73c | 76.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…806abacked Rune | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Vacherot | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 271 | 32.1%87 W · 184 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…7e29backed Vacherot | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Vacherot | 26c | 53.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Rune | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Rune | 31c | 48.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cba…b0e4backed Vacherot | 31c | 41.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Vacherot | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Rune | 78c | 39.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Rune | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Vacherot | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Rune | 62c | 24.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…17d2backed Rune | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64d1…f7f2backed Rune | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f11…da05backed Rune | 75c | 15.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Rune | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.