Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Bublik vs. Khachanov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbea8ed6ef30f92635e9d64bfd13c137df7a69b5c9b08d372dc2d850a7c31eac1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bublikof Bublik, Khachanov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf557…18debacked Khachanov | 65c | 4,187$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,727.55 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Khachanov | 53c | 4,012$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,139.78 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Bublik | 60c | 3,928$2,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.38 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Bublik | 62c | 3,631$2,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.19 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Khachanov | 40c | 2,769$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.7 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Khachanov | 53c | 2,631$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Khachanov | 33c | 2,204$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.22 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Khachanov | 41c | 2,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Khachanov | 39c | 1,894$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.54 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Bublik | 62c | 1,618$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.17 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Khachanov | 20c | 1,231$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.9 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Khachanov | 37c | 1,109$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.67 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe560…11f0backed Khachanov | 39c | 1,033$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bublik | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Bublik | 60c | 996.97$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.97 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Bublik | 42c | 877.52$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.7 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +12.2wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +399.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Bublik | 59c | 834.77$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.26 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Bublik | 61c | 834.12$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.17 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Khachanov | 39c | 738.81$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.14 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Bublik | 60c | 692.22$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.89 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x998c…6f97backed Bublik | 51c | 675.25$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.74 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Bublik | 32c | 628.13$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.13 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Bublik | 61c | 430.44$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.87 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Khachanov | 41c | 393.69$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.8 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Bublik | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Bublik | 59c | 300$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bublik | 27c | 298.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.56 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Khachanov | 58c | 291.2$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.96 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Bublik | 38c | 220$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.4 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Khachanov | 54c | 209.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Khachanov | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Bublik | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…6333backed Bublik | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Bublik | 29c | 173.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bublik | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bublik | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7a…6f28backed Bublik | 63c | 157.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Khachanov | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Khachanov | 45c | 133.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…0e50backed Bublik | 42c | 132.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4675…fbd4backed Bublik | 69c | 131.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Bublik | 59c | 125$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Bublik | 38c | 119$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Khachanov | 20c | 118.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Bublik | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Bublik | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…4b3ebacked Khachanov | 42c | 95.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Khachanov | 38c | 90.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bublik | 58c | 84.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bublik | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed Bublik | 31c | 79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Khachanov | 40c | 62.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…f21abacked Bublik | 62c | 53.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked Bublik | 63c | 47.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c0…21febacked Khachanov | 43c | 46.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…e089backed Bublik | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…0868backed Bublik | 37c | 44.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Khachanov | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Khachanov | 56c | 39.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Bublik | 61c | 35.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab2…e698backed Bublik | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Khachanov | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…3d76backed Khachanov | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.