Tennis · resolved market
ATP Washington D.C – De Minaur vs. Nakashima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc1118688eda364b9466be69123ee0ac98be6fbbf538629c6088982587c931b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- De Minaurof De Minaur, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf22e…f52cbacked Nakashima | 22c | 4,669$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.68 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Nakashima | 14c | 2,971$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.58 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Nakashima | 34c | 2,279$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.85 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed De Minaur | 65c | 2,045$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.85 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Nakashima | 17c | 1,795$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.23 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Nakashima | 16c | 1,679$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.45 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Nakashima | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Nakashima | 35c | 800$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked De Minaur | 66c | 754.55$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.55 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Nakashima | 13c | 721.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…51a7backed Nakashima | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked De Minaur | 67c | 471.33$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.46 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nakashima | 33c | 449.88$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Nakashima | 38c | 332.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…3af7backed Nakashima | 35c | 327.8$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…bdcabacked De Minaur | 66c | 303.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Nakashima | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 186 | 43.5%81 W · 105 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nakashima | 37c | 273.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nakashima | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked De Minaur | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed De Minaur | 79c | 214.9$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked De Minaur | 62c | 182.89$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…aff4backed De Minaur | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed De Minaur | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 315 | 55.6%175 W · 140 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b3b1backed Nakashima | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 372 | 33.9%126 W · 246 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed De Minaur | 66c | 141.67$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed De Minaur | 67c | 134.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Nakashima | 36c | 116.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Nakashima | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed De Minaur | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Nakashima | 20c | 98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked De Minaur | 79c | 95.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Nakashima | 32c | 94.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked De Minaur | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Nakashima | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…c507backed De Minaur | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed De Minaur | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Nakashima | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Nakashima | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…725ebacked De Minaur | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed De Minaur | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,348 | 46.5%1,092 W · 1,256 L | +54.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed De Minaur | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.