Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e50b661a2bedc670bcf32fc9ece12616f6fc4fba5dbe8526292bf3447374009
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,284,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,416,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,284,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 482 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 11c | 171,620$19,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,499.72 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 12c | 71,444$8,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,398.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a19…fe01backed No | 12c | 64,454$7,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,765.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…cb2abacked No | 7c | 59,364$4,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,254.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 18c | 54,038$9,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,696.41 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 7c | 49,475$3,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,456.72 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 7c | 31,792$2,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,186.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 28,130$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 11c | 28,121$2,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,989 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 13c | 16,507$2,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 13c | 15,250$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked No | 13c | 14,957$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed No | 0c | 14,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 20c | 13,423$2,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,663.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 6c | 12,863$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.34 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 12,780$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 12c | 11,940$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.08 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 18c | 10,965$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.95 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…9226backed No | 10c | 10,879$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0325…16e7backed No | 9c | 10,300$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…5f5ebacked No | 13c | 9,916$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 77c | 9,000$6,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 20c | 8,689$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.93 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 75c | 8,562$6,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,098.32 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 9c | 8,502$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.94 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…a59dbacked No | 9c | 8,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…ca9ebacked No | 7c | 7,879$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed No | 23c | 7,404$1,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,703 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 7c | 7,154$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.57 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed No | 15c | 6,747$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 74c | 6,632$4,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.02 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 10c | 6,565$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.93 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…b1d7backed No | 9c | 6,338$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d9…8483backed No | 22c | 6,328$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.68 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0829…f6f0backed No | 17c | 6,322$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 17c | 6,106$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.79 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed No | 3c | 5,979$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 8c | 5,970$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.94 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 9c | 5,900$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c88…8570backed No | 19c | 5,866$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked No | 10c | 5,489$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.95 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 10c | 5,430$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 13c | 5,400$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6538…9392backed No | 10c | 5,204$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 14c | 5,194$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.13 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 3c | 5,144$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.34 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 8c | 5,080$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…4df9backed No | 8c | 5,052$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…1d82backed No | 9c | 5,012$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…b193backed No | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 7c | 4,926$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…5d0ebacked No | 5c | 4,859$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…7e3dbacked No | 8c | 4,422$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…4f67backed No | 16c | 4,319$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 7c | 4,310$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.95 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ca…c193backed No | 9c | 3,449$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…9be0backed No | 0c | 3,341$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 8c | 3,235$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc87a…022ebacked No | 18c | 3,214$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Yes | 77c | 3,191$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 23c | 3,095$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.85 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 17c | 3,000$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…183cbacked No | 13c | 2,960$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 8c | 2,925$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…5eb4backed No | 20c | 2,921$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x620c…0d32backed Yes | 75c | 2,884$2,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 9c | 2,817$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.67 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 15c | 2,798$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…9b80backed No | 7c | 2,787$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 8c | 2,762$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.55 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed No | 21c | 2,686$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 9c | 2,664$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.01 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 19c | 2,568$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.63 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 2c | 2,500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 23c | 2,470$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.65 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1320…f448backed No | 10c | 2,470$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 2,436$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.42 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 8c | 2,409$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…ef55backed No | 8c | 2,205$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed No | 14c | 2,203$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 6c | 2,200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10c9…1696backed No | 22c | 2,200$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30be…4e33backed No | 22c | 2,159$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…a68abacked No | 24c | 2,083$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked No | 8c | 2,060$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf98…ffc6backed No | 22c | 1,900$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8135…a544backed No | 15c | 1,866$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 79c | 1,850$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.92 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 17c | 1,776$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 75c | 1,700$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.39 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes | 79c | 1,654$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.72 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed No | 22c | 1,457$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.69 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 8c | 1,456$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 13c | 1,455$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.15 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…38ddbacked No | 10c | 1,450$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 10c | 1,439$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…f134backed No | 17c | 1,422$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b9…5db9backed No | 10c | 1,401$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 14c | 1,379$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.1 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.