Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f7c60f27f0b885531538bad8e3cf66f74e2ecdb084f9f3662043d69127bfc8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 9c | 13,715$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.53 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 9c | 13,027$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed Yes | 22c | 10,711$2,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,351.18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 10c | 8,379$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.55 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 6c | 7,645$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.03 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 6,542$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.92 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 59c | 5,847$3,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,419.21 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 71c | 5,293$3,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.14 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 4c | 5,209$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.71 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 41c | 3,500$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,259$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…b9f6backed Yes | 29c | 2,800$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.49 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 28c | 2,570$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.29 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed Yes | 43c | 2,154$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…1290backed Yes | 33c | 1,502$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 27c | 1,500$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.28 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 70c | 1,420$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.61 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 1,405$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.91 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,278$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.26 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 30c | 1,250$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 2c | 1,211$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…5f51backed Yes | 4c | 1,168$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…f61abacked Yes | 22c | 1,161$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,159$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,154$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.85 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,126$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.75 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 74c | 990.29$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.41 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 835.79$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…f4efbacked Yes | 28c | 802.15$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…e35cbacked No | 74c | 770.27$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.43 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 758.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 73c | 757.49$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.52 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 26c | 743.73$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.7 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 60c | 699.27$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.84 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 11c | 604.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 8c | 599.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 26c | 594.3$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.52 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…96e8backed Yes | 15c | 558.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 3c | 556.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked No | 74c | 548.45$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.95 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2185backed Yes | 18c | 544.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…2172backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8c…5baebacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 424.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 19c | 400$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed Yes | 29c | 399.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 71c | 393.13$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a6…d13fbacked Yes | 4c | 380$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe435…0bb1backed Yes | 29c | 351.78$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 29c | 348.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…15c7backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…d6febacked Yes | 26c | 330$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…626fbacked Yes | 35c | 327.93$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…92d3backed Yes | 3c | 322$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…6866backed Yes | 28c | 321.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 319.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed No | 57c | 249.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…f3eebacked Yes | 27c | 240.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 28c | 232.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…f2e9backed No | 68c | 201.49$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 72c | 178.7$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 178.59$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 28c | 166.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0601…b06fbacked Yes | 8c | 165.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa780…0857backed Yes | 28c | 150.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed No | 67c | 144.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 79c | 144.71$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…5679backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…ca8dbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…a86dbacked No | 73c | 134.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…414dbacked No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…03b1backed Yes | 29c | 128.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…086ebacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02df…22e1backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212c…8e4abacked No | 68c | 73.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…f536backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca49…ce96backed Yes | 28c | 68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 23c | 65.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 74c | 65.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 23c | 64.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7d…9021backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd369…0e68backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…bb12backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2b81backed No | 78c | 51.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb0…e8e4backed No | 80c | 50.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 26c | 48.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.