Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06c901b3983cd58bec34252a72a74d4a2f2a64e6ad359967a864dc424997967a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $290,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $313,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 452 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 60c | 13,103$7,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,842.27 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 49c | 8,482$4,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300.99 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 53c | 6,719$3,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,129.64 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 59c | 5,503$3,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,247.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa832…abf8backed No | 63c | 5,284$3,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 49c | 4,716$2,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,383.73 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed No | 40c | 4,710$1,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,824.45 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…9b38backed Yes | 57c | 4,185$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 3,875$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 36c | 3,841$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440.71 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 32c | 3,791$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.26 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…59d6backed Yes | 53c | 3,361$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 49c | 3,090$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…6a2cbacked No | 67c | 3,019$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…63e0backed Yes | 64c | 3,000$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 2,896$1,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.3 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 49c | 2,745$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.63 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6538…9392backed No | 66c | 2,528$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 58c | 2,503$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.84 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…af7cbacked Yes | 61c | 2,458$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked Yes | 44c | 2,295$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 67c | 2,277$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.15 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 34c | 2,247$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.59 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…aa3fbacked No | 76c | 2,102$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…3f6bbacked No | 68c | 2,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 42c | 2,000$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.99 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43f0…1b3dbacked Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,892$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 63c | 1,841$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.43 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 63c | 1,822$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b9…ad8fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,764$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 51c | 1,754$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.79 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 48c | 1,732$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.72 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…3be6backed Yes | 50c | 1,709$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 31c | 1,664$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe855…a4adbacked Yes | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…4987backed Yes | 41c | 1,491$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 59c | 1,471$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.16 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,404$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.78 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes | 58c | 1,363$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,363$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 45c | 1,302$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.64 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…96cbbacked No | 60c | 1,301$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 72c | 1,248$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.42 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes | 32c | 1,224$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.93 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 55c | 1,202$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.22 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,178$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.49 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed No | 41c | 1,156$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 53c | 1,116$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.43 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 43c | 1,115$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.35 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d14…4e26backed No | 44c | 1,107$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a19…fe01backed No | 47c | 1,100$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…c040backed Yes | 58c | 1,080$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…5057backed No | 48c | 1,048$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 16c | 1,046$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.81 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 72c | 1,006$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.92 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…3455backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 47c | 999.97$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.98 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 43c | 999.96$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.48 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 31c | 997.33$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked No | 53c | 962.59$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…c14dbacked Yes | 32c | 922.01$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed Yes | 54c | 899.96$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.98 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…6333backed Yes | 60c | 829.06$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 9c | 817.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 49c | 811.27$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes | 61c | 809.58$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.3 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 63c | 808.81$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.53 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 26c | 798.53$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.62 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 796.35$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.71 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ff…c0efbacked No | 49c | 784.48$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…c40bbacked No | 48c | 762.17$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed No | 76c | 760$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e6…20e2backed Yes | 49c | 757.35$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 45c | 746.18$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…73cfbacked No | 69c | 739.59$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6413…ab24backed Yes | 60c | 738.15$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 28c | 731.04$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 49c | 705.82$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.85 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3019…f036backed Yes | 48c | 673.53$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 62c | 649.71$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.12 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…7e3dbacked No | 67c | 613.46$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.46 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked No | 41c | 605.17$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 569.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 8c | 557.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…d152backed No | 65c | 554$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…f970backed No | 62c | 553.82$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…0424backed Yes | 11c | 545.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 42c | 529.98$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.49 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03f…c592backed Yes | 13c | 524.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x225e…05b1backed Yes | 48c | 519.29$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ca…c193backed No | 40c | 502.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 55c | 494.69$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd6…b33cbacked No | 47c | 483.02$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…5d0ebacked No | 51c | 482.64$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 49c | 473.78$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…aa05backed No | 66c | 462.58$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c19…cd48backed No | 41c | 461.79$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 64c | 457.83$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.