Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df6862b69a47872e75864cac21b9ae9ea0cb552884d38aea9170c5fe5321bc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,307,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,235,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,307,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 760 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 55c | 100,342$55,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,267.19 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 46c | 69,785$32,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,095.84 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 37c | 63,927$23,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,445.04 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed Yes | 71c | 36,489$25,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,872.33 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f36…d355backed No | 27c | 28,613$7,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,880.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +163.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 41c | 26,714$11,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,663.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 49c | 25,013$12,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,734.68 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…2928backed Yes | 45c | 21,836$9,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,885.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 46c | 21,003$9,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,583.01 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe700…7005backed Yes | 48c | 20,835$9,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,938.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +248.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…9b80backed No | 36c | 19,050$6,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,100.17 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 18,731$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.15 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 26c | 17,613$4,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,609.62 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…8d0bbacked No | 56c | 16,855$9,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,366.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 52c | 16,116$8,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,333.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 51c | 15,294$7,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,549.86 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…3baabacked Yes | 60c | 15,000$8,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,990.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 26c | 15,000$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,871.99 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5ee2backed Yes | 42c | 13,894$5,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,775.03 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 41c | 13,388$5,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,851.17 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 27c | 12,431$3,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,402.67 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 48c | 11,936$5,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,742.1 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 63c | 11,785$7,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,387.33 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed Yes | 45c | 11,480$5,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,149.11 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 62c | 11,250$6,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,316.93 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 47c | 10,558$4,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,919.12 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…a517backed No | 68c | 9,895$6,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,203.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed No | 67c | 9,769$6,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,188.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 26c | 9,620$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,118.8 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 52c | 9,422$4,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,561.89 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 39c | 8,871$3,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,425.72 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 36c | 8,779$3,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,611.22 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 10c | 8,219$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.41 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 46c | 7,967$3,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,335.53 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 49c | 7,200$3,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,641.99 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed No | 37c | 7,195$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,524.59 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…1290backed No | 56c | 7,111$3,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149.18 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b74…2891backed No | 54c | 6,990$3,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,211 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 6,538$3,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,682.47 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,292$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 32c | 6,149$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.75 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked No | 53c | 5,928$3,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,789.29 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 62c | 5,831$3,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,610.15 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 57c | 5,761$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.33 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 52c | 5,100$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…7884backed Yes | 2c | 5,057$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 52c | 5,000$2,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.91 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.92 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 47c | 4,951$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.55 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed Yes | 53c | 4,826$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,568.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 20c | 4,663$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 4,658$3,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…595ebacked Yes | 22c | 4,315$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…919cbacked No | 67c | 4,300$2,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…80bcbacked No | 78c | 4,268$3,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 51c | 4,133$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.81 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 43c | 4,080$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,768.76 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 67c | 4,075$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.5 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 67c | 3,990$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 31c | 3,897$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.52 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 57c | 3,777$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.56 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 30c | 3,775$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.89 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8bc8backed No | 47c | 3,761$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.22 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 64c | 3,677$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.75 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 9c | 3,573$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.45 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked No | 69c | 3,526$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.36 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 36c | 3,403$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 40c | 3,348$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.38 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 37c | 3,338$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 49c | 3,307$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.62 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 62c | 3,300$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 32c | 3,288$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.84 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked No | 31c | 3,188$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 52c | 3,068$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.22 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked Yes | 49c | 3,057$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked No | 59c | 3,000$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…d44bbacked Yes | 56c | 2,911$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed No | 46c | 2,907$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.47 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 36c | 2,872$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.28 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…deb6backed Yes | 38c | 2,703$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…9e58backed No | 54c | 2,700$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…1f04backed Yes | 64c | 2,653$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.83 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 57c | 2,614$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.4 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed Yes | 49c | 2,604$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a1…f485backed Yes | 42c | 2,594$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 48c | 2,590$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 41c | 2,576$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.12 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 16c | 2,565$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.01 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 55c | 2,515$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.19 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 64c | 2,434$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.42 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…d077backed No | 37c | 2,412$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec2…15bbbacked Yes | 38c | 2,401$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 34c | 2,383$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked Yes | 58c | 2,324$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.31 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf981…1d5fbacked Yes | 65c | 2,302$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 35c | 2,300$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.5 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…681fbacked No | 51c | 2,285$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked No | 55c | 2,267$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.75 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.