Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65dba70f1ce2e78bdc1c82ae6325d32b2ffbe2fe0eaec0e39e70c3dadfa44f94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $505,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $503,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 368 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x798f…d7d3backed No | 0c | 134,588$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed No | 0c | 39,009$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc39…8ad8backed No | 0c | 16,886$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad0f…29a6backed No | 1c | 12,096$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed No | 1c | 11,193$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…2828backed No | 3c | 10,370$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…6075backed Yes | 44c | 9,328$4,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,234.73 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 68c | 7,364$5,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,324.96 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 6,810$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 31c | 6,380$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 6,091$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 64c | 5,975$3,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,152.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 20c | 5,331$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…b1d7backed No | 2c | 4,887$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 35c | 4,465$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.83 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 69c | 4,000$2,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 29c | 3,873$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…7450backed No | 78c | 3,840$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6046backed Yes | 62c | 3,294$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 37c | 3,216$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db1…e2abbacked Yes | 56c | 2,966$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…9be0backed No | 2c | 2,828$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 17c | 2,787$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.61 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 1c | 2,782$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +269.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…ea33backed No | 5c | 2,754$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 1c | 2,565$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 2,500$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…831ebacked Yes | 74c | 2,344$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 43c | 2,131$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…9cdebacked No | 3c | 1,874$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 1,869$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.17 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 37c | 1,736$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.56 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 7c | 1,699$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 33c | 1,679$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 1c | 1,502$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…73cfbacked No | 34c | 1,400$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 3c | 1,338$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 2c | 1,298$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…dc86backed No | 42c | 1,249$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed No | 71c | 1,213$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 56c | 1,200$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.99 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 58c | 1,192$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.44 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…dbbfbacked No | 2c | 1,144$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed No | 57c | 1,139$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1320…f448backed No | 21c | 1,132$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes | 59c | 1,088$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.55 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…7b4dbacked Yes | 63c | 1,040$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 41c | 1,000$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.61 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…cc49backed Yes | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 57c | 999.93$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.07 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 26c | 999.05$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.59 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…26aabacked No | 2c | 993.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 29c | 985.38$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.39 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 43c | 961.79$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.47 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 2c | 900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 20c | 899.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…a2a1backed No | 49c | 867.06$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed Yes | 64c | 855.22$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.88 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…f134backed No | 16c | 843.72$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 37c | 819.94$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.56 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…4987backed Yes | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 2c | 802.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed Yes | 61c | 800$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98a…4db0backed No | 28c | 800$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 72c | 786.51$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 40c | 768.16$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…38ddbacked No | 23c | 767.29$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68c…77e0backed No | 4c | 746.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7092…7b4ebacked No | 66c | 744.83$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0524…1479backed No | 6c | 742.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa3…ff46backed No | 28c | 718.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 65c | 654.82$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…4fa8backed No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…5fdebacked Yes | 51c | 599.98$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…5136backed Yes | 61c | 594.48$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…f970backed No | 46c | 588.91$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 43c | 585.19$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.91 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes | 58c | 577.25$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.25 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 79c | 575.2$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 49c | 546.88$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.5 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 58c | 537.56$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.24 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 60c | 536.4$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.67 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 56c | 531.23$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 55c | 524.17$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…7e3dbacked No | 40c | 519.32$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 61c | 515.71$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.39 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…05bbbacked No | 39c | 512.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe55c…40f6backed No | 78c | 510.73$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 68c | 508.68$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.02 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…40f9backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ca…fc0dbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…84a5backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…c215backed No | 34c | 495.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c9…7e55backed Yes | 65c | 487.85$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 49c | 487.73$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.17 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…33f6backed No | 55c | 476.98$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes | 26c | 476.89$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.29 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 63c | 463.27$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 23c | 461.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.29 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.