Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe863330d861c838da72452f808cdf804489699fe768e0b64fc511308b68eb698
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,977$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 4c | 3,010$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 9c | 2,356$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.7 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,143$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 65c | 986.65$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.65 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 10c | 979.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed Yes | 18c | 842$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.53 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 7c | 719.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 14c | 655.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed Yes | 34c | 605.55$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 493.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 478.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes | 28c | 477.32$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 418.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 28c | 396.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7092…7b4ebacked No | 75c | 323.29$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed Yes | 6c | 279.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed No | 68c | 252.39$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 16c | 244.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 11c | 234.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab23…de85backed Yes | 11c | 215.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes | 37c | 194.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…fbc1backed Yes | 26c | 190.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6538…9392backed Yes | 25c | 154.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 10c | 150.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 21c | 149.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…42f6backed No | 79c | 137.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 17c | 136.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…7e3dbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 80c | 125.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 15c | 117.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 114.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 74c | 103.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 16c | 89.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes | 23c | 89.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 35c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 35c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed No | 72c | 82.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…c15fbacked Yes | 16c | 75.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…08bebacked No | 79c | 66.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…63e0backed Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…9ef8backed No | 75c | 42.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 25c | 42.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c6…f385backed No | 76c | 33.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef0…141fbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf670…e778backed No | 74c | 24.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…679ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.