Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fa63a3f820801f6bab4f95a9fc4453c004ab1881b6be2c2cb26c812f7efb997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $820,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $713,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $820,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a50…f1b1backed Yes | 32c | 57,483$18,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,394.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…8f1abacked No | 68c | 57,483$39,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,394.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 8c | 29,745$2,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,348.75 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 11c | 26,271$2,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed Yes | 9c | 20,953$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.93 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 4c | 17,480$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.85 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 13,817$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.61 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 10c | 13,582$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.38 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 10c | 12,970$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.76 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…1290backed Yes | 16c | 10,755$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.91 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…4f7cbacked Yes | 8c | 10,711$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 7c | 10,064$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.09 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Yes | 10c | 9,841$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 9,050$1,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.95 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 8c | 8,176$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.37 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…1f51backed Yes | 10c | 7,082$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…d012backed Yes | 14c | 7,047$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 6,946$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 6,855$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.3 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 8c | 6,398$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79a6…bf57backed Yes | 7c | 5,943$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked Yes | 18c | 5,604$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed Yes | 11c | 5,245$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 5c | 5,240$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.2 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc7…c24fbacked Yes | 14c | 4,978$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 6c | 4,962$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.74 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,760$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.4 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes | 12c | 4,538$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 7c | 4,110$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.98 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed Yes | 18c | 4,084$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 71c | 3,983$2,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.47 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…1bc3backed Yes | 8c | 3,827$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…6866backed Yes | 7c | 3,792$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.62 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 3,632$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 10c | 3,539$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.83 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 5c | 3,250$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 6c | 3,150$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked Yes | 28c | 3,101$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.2 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 2,886$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.59 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…9356backed Yes | 31c | 2,829$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 2,740$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…b9f6backed Yes | 8c | 2,725$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 11c | 2,700$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.31 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…dcc8backed Yes | 21c | 2,438$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…3b09backed Yes | 7c | 2,397$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.59 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 9c | 2,353$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b5…0000backed Yes | 7c | 2,300$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…f4efbacked Yes | 9c | 2,298$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 2,090$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 2,050$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,950$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.49 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c45…7786backed No | 80c | 1,810$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.55 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 10c | 1,753$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.98 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd608…2e36backed Yes | 30c | 1,680$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 70c | 1,559$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.49 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe96f…14dabacked Yes | 9c | 1,499$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 15c | 1,490$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.48 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…41e8backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,416$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 2c | 1,335$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 1,308$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 16c | 1,248$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 24c | 1,228$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.77 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…7528backed Yes | 5c | 1,112$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…8aa7backed Yes | 6c | 1,110$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0454…65d9backed Yes | 8c | 1,033$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 14c | 1,018$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 19c | 999.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 4c | 988.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…ad18backed Yes | 10c | 967.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e9…4ec9backed Yes | 18c | 920.5$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 4c | 906.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 15c | 864.32$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.96 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 816.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…70a6backed Yes | 6c | 810$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 11c | 786.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…626fbacked Yes | 5c | 758.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x980c…a78dbacked Yes | 12c | 725.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8c…5baebacked Yes | 6c | 722.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 6c | 645.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a2…f2c2backed Yes | 6c | 638.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 2c | 607.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c2…12b9backed Yes | 8c | 583.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 8c | 575$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca4…c1b0backed Yes | 8c | 565.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…2c00backed No | 72c | 548.98$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 66c | 542.98$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.11 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b76…76a2backed Yes | 22c | 542.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 32c | 523.33$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 9c | 519.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…e771backed Yes | 24c | 516.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca49…ce96backed Yes | 5c | 506$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 499.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 4c | 476$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…af9bbacked Yes | 15c | 443.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed No | 67c | 442.87$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…15c7backed Yes | 13c | 432.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.