Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6b3dba9eefc9b556c3bb0f140e7d530759e70ed1283caeb162c31df477c1e1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 18c | 22,767$4,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,175.86 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe700…7005backed Yes | 20c | 20,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +248.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 77c | 19,467$15,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,422.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 17c | 10,565$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.37 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 6,815$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.28 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0620…8c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 6,736$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 21c | 6,046$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.21 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 15c | 5,700$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.95 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 3c | 5,614$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.21 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 78c | 5,000$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 11c | 3,889$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.53 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…6087backed Yes | 17c | 3,661$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67fa…5f52backed No | 80c | 3,133$2,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed Yes | 23c | 2,557$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.52 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5ee2backed Yes | 26c | 2,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 14c | 2,406$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.14 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…aa99backed Yes | 6c | 2,011$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 23cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…2d43backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 5c | 1,733$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked Yes | 29c | 1,541$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…9821backed Yes | 21c | 1,468$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 6c | 1,350$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 78c | 1,297$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.76 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed No | 79c | 1,286$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 80c | 1,241$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.91 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…919cbacked No | 80c | 1,240$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 12c | 1,171$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.63 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,156$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed Yes | 22c | 1,156$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 77c | 1,154$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.89 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 28c | 1,078$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.17 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…e412backed No | 80c | 1,072$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.44 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…4f7cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,030$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ee…a4a0backed No | 76c | 1,003$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50df…1f07backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cc…5cb7backed Yes | 10c | 999.96$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes | 30c | 999.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 16c | 996.9$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.18 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…6b7fbacked Yes | 11c | 948$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 910.19$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.11 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 8c | 854.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked Yes | 26c | 781.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 80c | 750$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 5c | 699.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe2…e0aabacked Yes | 28c | 686.62$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…c9d5backed Yes | 22c | 675.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…5743backed No | 76c | 661.71$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 614.02$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…88cabacked No | 75c | 612.79$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 13c | 603.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 75c | 591.61$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.32 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 21c | 575.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…ed1abacked Yes | 13c | 567.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 24c | 549.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 70c | 540$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed No | 79c | 518.73$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…2668backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 23c | 491$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +6.4wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x531c…d8a7backed Yes | 26c | 460.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 444.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 3c | 423.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 415.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdf…ac87backed Yes | 22c | 398.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9d…312bbacked No | 80c | 396.25$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 18c | 380.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…58b9backed Yes | 22c | 372.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 76c | 370.12$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea13…b148backed Yes | 22c | 362.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…ffecbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a9…4f49backed Yes | 21c | 339.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +1,840.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 19c | 334.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 8c | 324.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 78c | 305.96$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 72c | 302.6$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.05 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…18dbbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 79c | 288.77$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…f09abacked Yes | 19c | 268.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…c336backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 77c | 248.46$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 16c | 244.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd3…af17backed Yes | 5c | 234$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +4,891.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…eb86backed Yes | 8c | 225$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e39…7948backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 20c | 221$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed Yes | 6c | 219.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 75c | 211.24$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 69 | 71%49 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…dad6backed Yes | 18c | 210.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…2090backed No | 73c | 210.06$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…126dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…a4b9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…c73cbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…1f04backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…8c1bbacked Yes | 29c | 184.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.