Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x271e1d96693db79b42a277dc5f64b61a72bc1a0fad85586fd28c7d89b9b96231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $709,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $787,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $709,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 397 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a19…fe01backed No | 16c | 46,118$7,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,358.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…96cbbacked No | 17c | 43,242$7,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,148 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 27c | 24,734$6,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,565.56 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed No | 30c | 15,685$4,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,705.38 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…6075backed Yes | 74c | 13,181$9,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,435.88 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 13c | 12,908$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.84 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…9b38backed Yes | 72c | 11,771$8,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,240.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 10,393$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 15c | 10,147$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.9 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 18c | 7,672$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.45 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 13c | 6,905$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 25c | 5,535$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 9c | 4,761$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.04 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 23c | 4,705$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 66c | 4,193$2,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.67 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed No | 1c | 4,150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 15c | 4,042$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed No | 40c | 3,940$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 13c | 3,921$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.22 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 17c | 3,761$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.96 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 14c | 3,686$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.87 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 70c | 3,643$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.4 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 18c | 3,628$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.54 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 21c | 3,331$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.28 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 72c | 3,192$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.29 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 74c | 3,048$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.69 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 9c | 3,018$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x620c…0d32backed Yes | 70c | 3,000$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes | 75c | 2,814$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.15 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 2,747$2,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.83 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 72c | 2,729$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.69 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked Yes | 75c | 2,657$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.08 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed Yes | 76c | 2,637$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.16 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed No | 5c | 2,629$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 61c | 2,596$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.24 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 14c | 2,516$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.47 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f36…b0b5backed No | 27c | 2,441$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03f…c592backed No | 21c | 2,402$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 26c | 2,270$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.53 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…9420backed Yes | 76c | 2,100$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…3f6bbacked Yes | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 74c | 2,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 66c | 1,996$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.3 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 20c | 1,995$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked No | 19c | 1,953$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 13c | 1,831$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6538…9392backed No | 27c | 1,775$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed No | 31c | 1,730$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c01…797dbacked No | 14c | 1,599$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 58c | 1,551$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.17 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…05bbbacked No | 15c | 1,474$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed No | 11c | 1,467$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.36 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed Yes | 70c | 1,440$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.69 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…dfc5backed No | 35c | 1,425$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…b1d7backed No | 16c | 1,425$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 71c | 1,401$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.6 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 70c | 1,369$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.95 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 16c | 1,311$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.78 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 71c | 1,300$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 75c | 1,252$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.54 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 72c | 1,229$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.52 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed Yes | 65c | 1,228$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 43c | 1,227$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.87 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1320…f448backed No | 2c | 1,155$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…aa3fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,149$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd26a…37a2backed No | 20c | 1,135$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes | 70c | 1,085$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 1c | 1,061$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…82eebacked No | 38c | 1,060$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…9251backed Yes | 76c | 1,052$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,019$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.33 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 13c | 1,017$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…cc49backed Yes | 65c | 1,013$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 30c | 1,009$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.51 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66be…1148backed Yes | 76c | 1,003$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 79c | 1,002$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes | 77c | 998.56$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked No | 15c | 925.48$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…a55bbacked No | 33c | 904.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1688…c0debacked No | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad82…1075backed No | 16c | 896.13$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e8…a409backed Yes | 61c | 885.95$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 61c | 876.43$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.99 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 12c | 865.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…4508backed Yes | 58c | 865.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.55 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 33c | 857.72$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.73 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…73cfbacked No | 30c | 799.99$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 42c | 798.5$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 76c | 798.33$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.81 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 79c | 791.21$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 62c | 782.97$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 27c | 782.69$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 34c | 756.93$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…ef55backed No | 11c | 710$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 27c | 699.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…7e3dbacked No | 17c | 685.08$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 46c | 654.47$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.96 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 77c | 650.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.04 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…9be0backed No | 2c | 642.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.