Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6987d084de71031819f82051ea62b29a354628c3e4a22076a2acc197c776080a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $965,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $904,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $965,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 636 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 57c | 54,133$31,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,047.84 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…6f80backed No | 25c | 34,699$8,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,917.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +295.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 65c | 33,773$21,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,818.43 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 72c | 27,901$20,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,837.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 65c | 23,986$15,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,512.56 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 79c | 23,447$18,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,492.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef83…96ecbacked No | 18c | 21,715$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,715.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 58c | 18,823$10,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,860.09 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 67c | 17,734$11,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,909.97 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf19f…7c8bbacked Yes | 48c | 17,058$8,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,187.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afe…6d26backed No | 52c | 17,028$8,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,173.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4216backed No | 60c | 16,516$9,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,568.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 69c | 16,389$11,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,369.95 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 19c | 15,296$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,445.09 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…1d82backed No | 18c | 12,923$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,633.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…f14bbacked No | 50c | 12,746$6,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,309.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +87%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 21c | 10,742$2,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,513.63 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 37c | 10,741$3,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,771.73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…7567backed No | 47c | 10,638$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,637.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed No | 79c | 10,329$8,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 77c | 10,067$7,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,728.74 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 18c | 8,940$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.82 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 31c | 8,763$2,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,703.04 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed No | 37c | 7,935$2,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,006.85 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 26c | 7,637$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,652.33 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 38c | 6,786$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,220.82 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 43c | 6,475$2,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,696.44 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…4f67backed No | 54c | 6,469$3,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…577bbacked No | 76c | 5,859$4,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 26c | 5,749$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,258.71 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…dd88backed No | 52c | 5,564$2,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,696.47 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 33c | 5,521$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,692.64 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 16c | 5,449$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.47 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 27c | 5,268$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,833.78 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 26c | 5,183$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.9 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 18c | 5,038$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.32 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5615…6341backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 29c | 4,794$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.27 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 7c | 4,776$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.57 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb164…555cbacked No | 19c | 4,704$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,808.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 67c | 4,423$2,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.03 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f2…e90bbacked No | 76c | 4,414$3,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 44c | 4,403$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.99 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 76c | 4,389$3,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,334.47 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 15c | 4,329$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,698.97 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…4047backed No | 21c | 4,314$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,411.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…9e84backed No | 69c | 4,153$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9525…d823backed No | 33c | 4,028$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 31c | 4,023$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,775.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 21c | 4,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed No | 63c | 3,916$2,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed14…bebcbacked No | 29c | 3,690$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,627.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed Yes | 55c | 3,680$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.51 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4271…da24backed No | 56c | 3,563$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe1…e68cbacked Yes | 58c | 3,428$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ac…fa9ebacked Yes | 58c | 3,407$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…b193backed No | 53c | 3,381$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 16c | 3,250$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,731.73 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 12c | 3,200$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 22c | 3,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +640.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…2fa9backed Yes | 41c | 2,987$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.21 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed No | 72c | 2,927$2,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 25c | 2,854$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,142.94 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…e35cbacked No | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.78 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 57c | 2,649$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.74 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 2,607$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.71 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed No | 19c | 2,562$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,071.76 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5c…70dcbacked No | 43c | 2,541$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…17c9backed No | 35c | 2,506$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 75c | 2,442$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.88 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 57c | 2,429$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.47 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…0938backed Yes | 6c | 2,420$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…518fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,389$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…284fbacked No | 41c | 2,253$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…b193backed No | 66c | 2,191$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdb…310fbacked No | 19c | 2,136$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f36…d355backed No | 21c | 2,131$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +163.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,026$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…3fa6backed No | 24c | 2,020$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…a5a2backed No | 27c | 1,980$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 21c | 1,900$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.98 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,855$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.38 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked No | 23c | 1,815$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…9e58backed No | 28c | 1,785$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.84 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 24c | 1,762$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.94 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…3503backed Yes | 11c | 1,755$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847a…da83backed No | 18c | 1,750$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9538…666cbacked No | 28c | 1,708$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…7e28backed No | 48c | 1,705$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 1,684$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.64 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 18c | 1,667$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.67 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 60c | 1,593$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.87 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x127b…291ebacked No | 27c | 1,591$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d9…8483backed No | 17c | 1,568$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.79 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 15c | 1,547$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.87 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 28c | 1,498$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.39 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 47c | 1,498$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.52 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…4402backed No | 24c | 1,490$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ea…1f05backed No | 44c | 1,429$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.19 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.