Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb23587fc1e319cdf9aaa12c503f6b2149c820c3d64ded3c98b4ff6719cac78fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $749,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $786,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $749,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 903 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 62c | 42,614$26,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,299.04 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 40c | 32,528$13,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,477.47 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 29c | 28,962$8,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,281.83 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed No | 65c | 19,121$12,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,647.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 65c | 17,081$11,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,059.8 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 32c | 14,796$4,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,061.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 41c | 12,817$5,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,607.06 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 71c | 8,783$6,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,527.76 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15af…9e32backed Yes | 34c | 8,551$2,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 38c | 8,405$3,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,163.76 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 25c | 7,928$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.27 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…4987backed Yes | 30c | 7,690$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…9b38backed Yes | 25c | 6,823$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 63c | 6,600$4,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.08 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 79c | 6,427$5,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b2…1bffbacked No | 79c | 6,210$4,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 21c | 6,076$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.01 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…a55bbacked No | 79c | 5,776$4,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 5,566$3,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.54 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 68c | 5,517$3,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,746.69 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 70c | 5,371$3,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.83 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 50c | 5,346$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670.06 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked No | 31c | 5,247$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,636.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…284fbacked No | 49c | 5,222$2,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,679.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…96cbbacked No | 42c | 5,057$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,930.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed No | 64c | 4,840$3,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.02 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 40c | 4,775$1,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.9 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…dd88backed No | 43c | 4,756$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,707.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 31c | 4,700$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.08 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 76c | 4,649$3,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.89 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 63c | 4,505$2,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,836.88 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 7c | 4,378$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.11 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed No | 60c | 4,050$2,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 64c | 3,817$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.57 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed No | 70c | 3,800$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 49c | 3,657$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 21c | 3,572$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.41 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 59c | 3,521$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.61 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 71c | 3,439$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.19 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 72c | 3,035$2,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 55c | 3,007$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 51c | 3,000$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.62 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…02d7backed Yes | 39c | 3,000$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 33c | 3,000$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.73 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…1912backed Yes | 37c | 2,949$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 28c | 2,937$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 37c | 2,905$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.75 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d9…8483backed No | 69c | 2,820$1,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.98 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…cf60backed Yes | 52c | 2,798$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 51c | 2,665$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.26 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 65c | 2,646$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.42 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…a2a1backed Yes | 38c | 2,606$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 71c | 2,553$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 66c | 2,458$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d2…1feebacked Yes | 60c | 2,423$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 51c | 2,418$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 60c | 2,418$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.05 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 76c | 2,415$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…3b10backed Yes | 60c | 2,330$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…da36backed Yes | 51c | 2,246$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 33c | 2,202$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.03 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…5eb4backed No | 28c | 2,134$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.06 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…2031backed Yes | 41c | 2,000$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 65c | 1,851$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.08 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 65c | 1,833$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 52c | 1,808$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.69 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 71c | 1,806$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.12 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…7a0ebacked No | 75c | 1,733$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…9251backed No | 71c | 1,723$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,669$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.91 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad82…1075backed No | 54c | 1,602$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed Yes | 52c | 1,585$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 53c | 1,531$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.44 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…f231backed No | 68c | 1,492$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.41 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x488b…219bbacked No | 55c | 1,487$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 59c | 1,481$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.12 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 54c | 1,451$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.44 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 68c | 1,423$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed No | 79c | 1,388$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.05 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed Yes | 69c | 1,384$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.79 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41df…4b70backed No | 69c | 1,313$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 22c | 1,305$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 1,300$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.49 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked No | 69c | 1,293$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.42 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 59c | 1,280$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.49 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 72c | 1,262$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.94 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,249$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7f…6380backed No | 55c | 1,244$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 33c | 1,200$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.59 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 70c | 1,199$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.01 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 39c | 1,190$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 30c | 1,171$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.92 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…c637backed No | 35c | 1,166$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,164$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.27 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 64c | 1,153$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.63 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…a68abacked No | 70c | 1,129$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed No | 78c | 1,124$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…9980backed No | 45c | 1,109$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…dd2dbacked Yes | 68c | 1,100$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.