TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xba00…7a0e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
27
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 52 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$794Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$793.95
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,688Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+495.2%+$8,361.6
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$975Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$974.85
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,883Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,882.85
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$207
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,065Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,065.3
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$844Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$844.2
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.2
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$519.89
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$522.6
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.99
All 13 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$659Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+535%+$3,524.26
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$778Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$777.54
Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Flying Tulip FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$161.99
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+98.8%+$263.19
Over $800M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Over $1B committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+119.3%+$163.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$8.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,296Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.7%+$436.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+25%+$7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$372Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$371.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.