Token Launches · resolved market
Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd71b4d93e2c29dcee5fa3079311f884e2a2ba8701134aa7ddd18f017bb3a7963
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $372,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $288,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 4c | 36,799$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.84 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe25f…fe58backed Yes | 6c | 25,111$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbef…7de2backed Yes | 5c | 20,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…0b97backed Yes | 4c | 9,197$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 9,100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…a815backed Yes | 6c | 8,966$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…ab99backed Yes | 3c | 8,000$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,374$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…49f3backed Yes | 5c | 6,497$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 5c | 5,790$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.31 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…b60abacked Yes | 12c | 5,353$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6f…d933backed Yes | 12c | 5,117$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5298…7059backed Yes | 4c | 4,656$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…24eebacked Yes | 17c | 4,288$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…95f5backed Yes | 10c | 4,084$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 6c | 4,028$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.7 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 3,914$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.77 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…b94abacked Yes | 3c | 3,807$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4b…77d9backed Yes | 4c | 3,576$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c5…626dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,301$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.74 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,161$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 5c | 3,085$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.53 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,045$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 6c | 3,017$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.16 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.01 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecce…0b4fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,620$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…63b4backed Yes | 4c | 2,300$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,180$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked Yes | 4c | 2,100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked Yes | 4c | 1,924$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef97…b8fcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,631$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,626$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.29 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 3c | 1,545$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…186ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a5…bb7ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,396$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,394$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…5100backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 6c | 1,223$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,217$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed Yes | 9c | 1,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…6cccbacked Yes | 9c | 1,145$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…fa24backed Yes | 6c | 1,095$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…c9d1backed Yes | 3c | 900$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e18…16d4backed Yes | 1c | 834$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193f…0362backed Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…f411backed Yes | 4c | 700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b3…d05ebacked Yes | 5c | 700$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 24cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 11c | 664.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed Yes | 5c | 647.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 640.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 615$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093f…07b4backed Yes | 4c | 564$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 557.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 533.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 5c | 505.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 10c | 501.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…0e63backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Yes | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…86b1backed Yes | 4c | 475.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 473.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…c26fbacked Yes | 3c | 453.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 448$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…ce4abacked Yes | 9c | 428.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16de…6ccdbacked Yes | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…cae1backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…9a34backed Yes | 8c | 394.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…0f1bbacked Yes | 13c | 371.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…89a4backed Yes | 3c | 361.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b18…1c82backed Yes | 7c | 359.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 7c | 358.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…f78cbacked Yes | 4c | 358.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 8c | 318.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…1233backed Yes | 4c | 307.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…7a0ebacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a3…702dbacked Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…96f7backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…3dd6backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…2b0abacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Yes | 5c | 290$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Yes | 4c | 258.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…247bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…7facbacked Yes | 6c | 240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…8ac4backed Yes | 4c | 240$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 4c | 239$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 5c | 228.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34dd…eecfbacked Yes | 6c | 223.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes | 5c | 215.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…4a00backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…677fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…f49abacked Yes | 6c | 189.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +143.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed Yes | 6c | 189.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…702cbacked Yes | 8c | 189.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…09dabacked Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d00…1f5bbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?this page
- Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.