Token Launches · resolved market
Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69a46b63fc0bb76458af82943b9a612a3ba87dbec02c7dae3d48aec31105f73e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $368,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $296,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23f4…c234backed No | 8c | 20,540$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.27 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 29c | 14,491$4,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,273.76 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 8c | 9,171$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.66 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…92c1backed No | 9c | 8,897$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.69 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e5…1cb4backed No | 7c | 7,513$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de7…1e31backed No | 4c | 7,400$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 7,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked No | 26c | 7,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.92 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…76bbbacked No | 7c | 6,674$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 4c | 6,236$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.19 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 7c | 6,043$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.03 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked No | 8c | 5,847$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.75 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…4fc0backed No | 7c | 5,550$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 5,435$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.41 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 57c | 5,060$2,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.68 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…ccf2backed No | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,616$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6f…25f8backed No | 1c | 4,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa78a…2f5cbacked No | 11c | 4,442$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 46c | 4,380$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,013.43 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 14c | 4,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 3,973$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 14c | 3,677$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.03 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…9d95backed No | 6c | 3,095$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.53 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 8c | 3,091$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.28 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…6ef3backed No | 2c | 3,079$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 2,989$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.47 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x543b…4bb0backed No | 10c | 2,983$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,750$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…f5aabacked No | 2c | 2,453$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 2,300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed Yes | 58c | 2,205$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.08 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 11c | 2,204$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.55 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…bf03backed No | 28c | 2,200$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…cde5backed No | 47c | 2,109$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 14c | 2,065$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.91 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cda…cee7backed No | 4c | 2,062$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked Yes | 59c | 2,057$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.37 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 2,026$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 74c | 2,023$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…766ebacked No | 16c | 1,697$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 15c | 1,689$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.2 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 27c | 1,628$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.42 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…5b1ebacked No | 39c | 1,606$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…cd11backed Yes | 61c | 1,591$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa425…305bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,575$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…8546backed No | 44c | 1,550$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…17adbacked No | 43c | 1,500$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed No | 41c | 1,473$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.87 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcb…0383backed No | 2c | 1,471$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed No | 3c | 1,431$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac8…c41dbacked No | 41c | 1,422$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d47…1908backed Yes | 61c | 1,303$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef97…b8fcbacked No | 4c | 1,269$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 10c | 1,222$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…55c6backed No | 9c | 1,151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef1…2619backed Yes | 67c | 1,151$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…a537backed No | 4c | 1,136$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…5e82backed No | 2c | 1,133$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked No | 15c | 1,125$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.6 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb094…bf7fbacked No | 1c | 1,039$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked No | 8c | 1,007$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cca…d639backed No | 45c | 977.11$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 2c | 944.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 926.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c4…07afbacked No | 44c | 909.97$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…f191backed Yes | 56c | 907.86$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.46 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +109%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 9c | 900$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9189…7250backed Yes | 56c | 896.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802a…a63bbacked No | 24c | 889.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabd…f562backed No | 4c | 880$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5448…3cecbacked No | 2c | 880$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 4c | 874.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…5004backed No | 2c | 866.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 823.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed No | 7c | 800$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 5c | 737.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed No | 3c | 699.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed No | 4c | 682.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…8cdabacked No | 11c | 637.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…6156backed No | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…2e36backed No | 4c | 604.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 52c | 596.84$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.48 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…e18bbacked No | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 54c | 550$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 46c | 550$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…c6c1backed No | 5c | 550$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 58c | 548.77$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.97 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…be0abacked No | 4c | 512$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…3de2backed Yes | 60c | 505.52$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff2…90e4backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…46e6backed No | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 39c | 500$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.94 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes | 53c | 499.98$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.99 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch?this page
- Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.