Token Launches · resolved market
Flying Tulip FDV above $2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0129f7f8caec687c3c469a6139abd5c76e26e31d883b8d765f15040042c580d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $277,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5298…7059backed Yes | 2c | 34,062$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes | 4c | 14,818$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…96f7backed Yes | 0c | 14,712$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b9d4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…f11ebacked Yes | 4c | 9,644$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 7,300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 2c | 6,974$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.95 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…3f0fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,082$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…0b97backed Yes | 2c | 6,061$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…3498backed Yes | 9c | 5,677$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.04 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…9a34backed Yes | 8c | 4,474$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 2c | 3,842$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,820$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.97 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…89a4backed Yes | 1c | 3,289$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,963$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 1c | 2,738$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,459$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,295$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 1c | 2,008$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecce…0b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Yes | 2c | 1,947$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,713$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,425$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16de…6ccdbacked Yes | 5c | 998.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 964.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 952.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 1c | 912.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 715.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 712.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b18…1c82backed Yes | 4c | 675.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…90bdbacked Yes | 7c | 653.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…7a0ebacked Yes | 3c | 592.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…e200backed Yes | 4c | 555.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…7788backed Yes | 8c | 526.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Yes | 3c | 423.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…d55cbacked Yes | 3c | 382.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 4c | 375.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a6…0e40backed Yes | 3c | 354.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 300.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d32…cc64backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…ce4abacked Yes | 6c | 294.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed Yes | 5c | 270.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…7acfbacked Yes | 6c | 194$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…b756backed Yes | 8c | 144$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 27c | 39.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flying Tulip FDV above $2B one day after launch?this page
- Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.