Token Launches · resolved market
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd36a773850697d164d2e9ac0017fd91c5c06ab72e11cf87f3cbe0bf74d71f617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,460,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,274,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,460,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 758 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x073a…91e7backed Yes | 36c | 75,851$27,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,254.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 55c | 61,303$33,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,586.33 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fb…b06dbacked Yes | 64c | 44,759$28,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,955.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 39c | 41,398$16,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,339.79 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 29c | 38,475$11,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,196.33 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 23c | 32,225$7,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,422.61 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 69c | 30,555$21,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,174.12 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98fb…3017backed Yes | 41c | 25,864$10,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,254.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 26c | 23,279$5,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,980.3 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 41c | 22,261$9,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,213.64 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked No | 10c | 19,108$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…4fc0backed No | 17c | 17,630$3,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,074.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked No | 65c | 16,969$10,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,998.2 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 20c | 16,500$3,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,320 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes | 66c | 16,321$10,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,557.26 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…69b7backed No | 48c | 15,884$7,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,657.19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 36c | 15,680$5,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,586.26 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed No | 28c | 14,833$4,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,189.67 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…7552backed No | 40c | 14,543$5,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,806.35 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…0841backed No | 54c | 14,200$7,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,622 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 43c | 13,804$5,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,826.03 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…1a89backed No | 33c | 12,954$4,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,316.77 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…f8c4backed No | 62c | 12,556$7,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,760 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0f…04fdbacked No | 20c | 12,251$2,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,488.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 76c | 12,030$9,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,854.16 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 79c | 11,987$9,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,525.04 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…70a8backed No | 2c | 11,650$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked No | 60c | 11,500$6,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,845 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 12c | 10,500$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…06dfbacked No | 41c | 10,395$4,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,297.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…766ebacked No | 29c | 10,149$2,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,895.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed No | 70c | 10,083$7,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,031.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 47c | 10,055$4,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,749.77 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…6640backed No | 22c | 9,428$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 36c | 9,324$3,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,327.74 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed No | 39c | 9,156$3,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,546.12 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 54c | 9,070$4,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,933.99 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked No | 18c | 7,994$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.13 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7910…29e0backed No | 16c | 7,969$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 28c | 7,880$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203.26 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb90…883cbacked Yes | 75c | 7,560$5,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1db…d54fbacked Yes | 45c | 6,717$3,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,671.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…1917backed No | 56c | 6,611$3,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,696.46 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e5…1cb4backed No | 23c | 6,503$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…2de2backed No | 56c | 6,377$3,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,554.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc0…791dbacked Yes | 50c | 6,320$3,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,151.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +193.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ef00backed No | 11c | 6,209$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.88 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 16c | 6,174$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.31 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked No | 22c | 5,933$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.78 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 69c | 5,845$4,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.8 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 64c | 5,692$3,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,628.55 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2890…b5ecbacked No | 57c | 5,509$3,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,148.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…1f6abacked No | 60c | 5,400$3,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,251.52 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa78a…2f5cbacked No | 26c | 5,357$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…9f23backed No | 25c | 5,314$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 35c | 5,074$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.62 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…a875backed Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,625 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +6.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed No | 20c | 5,000$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked No | 22c | 5,000$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 18c | 4,996$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed Yes | 30c | 4,800$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,378.89 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 19c | 4,732$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.55 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 55c | 4,557$2,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,511.03 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…3f0fbacked Yes | 25c | 4,520$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…f191backed Yes | 69c | 4,350$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.48 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +109%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 31c | 4,250$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.83 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 41c | 4,200$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5df2backed No | 22c | 4,126$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…7d2fbacked No | 67c | 4,087$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,751.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 18c | 4,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked No | 19c | 3,973$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.45 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 22c | 3,966$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.52 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed No | 38c | 3,929$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…d61cbacked No | 66c | 3,844$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…5350backed No | 43c | 3,820$1,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x371d…fa1dbacked No | 43c | 3,759$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e9…fcc9backed No | 65c | 3,550$2,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,294.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc644…23f3backed No | 29c | 3,475$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed No | 43c | 3,463$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…186ebacked Yes | 30c | 3,365$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…7b0dbacked No | 18c | 3,338$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 76c | 3,290$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb094…bf7fbacked No | 4c | 3,101$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.81 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 19c | 3,030$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.78 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…4927backed No | 22c | 3,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4902…7214backed No | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d3…7340backed No | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 2,913$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed No | 60c | 2,886$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.04 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed Yes | 63c | 2,884$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.75 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 2,846$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.11 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…80e6backed No | 72c | 2,837$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.35 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…9d95backed No | 12c | 2,802$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.75 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 59c | 2,800$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.56 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 2,750$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e1…c852backed No | 65c | 2,658$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.49 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de7…1e31backed No | 15c | 2,653$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 36c | 2,625$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.56 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe517…a39fbacked No | 67c | 2,613$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac8…c41dbacked No | 67c | 2,531$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.86 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?this page
- Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.