Token Launches · resolved market
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x287e674a64ca5d0c02072e4aabdaeb7c3223ae0250f63a94ec815067a7129228
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $827,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $855,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $827,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 546 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Yes | 45c | 66,320$30,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,178.27 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 58c | 56,324$32,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,830.67 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…47a2backed Yes | 41c | 43,627$17,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,636.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc0…791dbacked Yes | 26c | 30,310$7,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,483.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +193.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 38c | 25,996$9,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,040.24 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…396fbacked No | 75c | 22,441$16,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,837.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed No | 1c | 15,542$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.17 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 8c | 15,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…a875backed Yes | 25c | 15,000$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,249.96 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +6.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 34c | 13,262$4,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,708.76 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…4203backed Yes | 36c | 13,029$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,329.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…6d9dbacked No | 0c | 12,615$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed Yes | 52c | 12,280$6,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,835.81 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed No | 58c | 11,950$6,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,949.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 28c | 11,109$3,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,993.69 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 29c | 11,072$3,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,868.53 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 20c | 9,999$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,019.59 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed No | 70c | 9,236$6,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,460.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…9a34backed No | 62c | 8,772$5,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,448.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked No | 57c | 7,600$4,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,342.73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…92c1backed Yes | 48c | 7,425$3,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,869.79 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked Yes | 55c | 6,919$3,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,096.04 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed Yes | 28c | 6,910$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,999.65 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…1130backed No | 74c | 6,769$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…91e7backed Yes | 16c | 6,646$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,581.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…f8c4backed No | 68c | 6,579$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 48c | 6,294$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.13 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 37c | 6,291$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,951.26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 38c | 5,968$2,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,686.53 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 48c | 5,757$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,006.54 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 55c | 5,653$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,094.66 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked No | 61c | 5,300$3,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,231.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…95f5backed Yes | 35c | 5,215$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f9…cc18backed Yes | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,249.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…e8a1backed No | 71c | 4,478$3,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,161.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed No | 54c | 4,337$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98fb…b06dbacked Yes | 51c | 4,307$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25f…fe58backed Yes | 41c | 3,893$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,305.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444b…add1backed Yes | 52c | 3,668$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,744.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…06dfbacked No | 61c | 3,600$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543b…4bb0backed Yes | 56c | 3,171$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 60c | 3,147$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,898.39 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,068$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed Yes | 47c | 3,041$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.37 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46eb…ba8cbacked No | 9c | 2,999$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe986…6e1cbacked Yes | 46c | 2,934$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d3…7340backed No | 69c | 2,920$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…b3eebacked Yes | 43c | 2,846$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,750$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…a0efbacked No | 26c | 2,730$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 54c | 2,571$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.04 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x125b…0336backed Yes | 38c | 2,481$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…186ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,361$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…a912backed Yes | 74c | 2,300$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed Yes | 46c | 2,179$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.05 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…1c10backed Yes | 43c | 2,176$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…3733backed No | 63c | 2,057$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…5f4cbacked No | 71c | 2,021$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…3fb2backed No | 76c | 2,012$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7938…95ccbacked No | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked No | 73c | 1,958$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.23 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf90b…cb6cbacked No | 58c | 1,905$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.55 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 47c | 1,888$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.36 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…ae0abacked No | 64c | 1,869$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…177fbacked No | 70c | 1,820$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.25 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ef00backed No | 38c | 1,815$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.13 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Yes | 35c | 1,732$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes | 40c | 1,700$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.99 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49d…2d57backed No | 57c | 1,677$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…7f07backed Yes | 37c | 1,650$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…7a96backed No | 67c | 1,631$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.85 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…c5c4backed Yes | 31c | 1,623$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.12 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd123…8590backed Yes | 39c | 1,579$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…2b0abacked Yes | 17c | 1,570$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.09 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…d1c7backed No | 68c | 1,515$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…f454backed No | 60c | 1,514$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…c58abacked No | 79c | 1,500$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d9…4c90backed Yes | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 29c | 1,451$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.37 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…4637backed Yes | 35c | 1,449$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62a…742cbacked No | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked No | 61c | 1,446$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 30c | 1,436$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.67 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 58c | 1,430$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.6 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…be64backed No | 72c | 1,386$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…6979backed Yes | 54c | 1,386$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.97 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…915ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,378$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.58 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 74c | 1,300$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…59a4backed Yes | 41c | 1,220$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 7c | 1,212$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe716…1450backed No | 64c | 1,163$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…85a7backed No | 59c | 1,150$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +374.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes | 39c | 1,140$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c5…626dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,115$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…3498backed Yes | 7c | 1,105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…adc4backed No | 79c | 1,101$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.09 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d0…95a7backed Yes | 46c | 1,093$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…6cccbacked Yes | 49c | 1,065$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 1,056$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.76 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.