TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9f7a…0e63

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 49 out of 100 (-0.01 per pick) — its least-bad Category, not a recommendation. Every Category this wallet trades grades at or below 50, which is what “no edge at all” looks like.

Best Category Us Midterms at 49 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT4517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,394Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+545.8%+$7,611.19
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$408.27
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.87
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+147.2%+$297.8
Espresso FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+231.3%+$368.31
Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$329.88
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$54
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+122.1%+$191.16
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$200.2
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$339
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$242.39
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+100%+$103.45
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+153.2%+$308.55
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$249.4
Lighter Airdrop on December 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Lighter Airdrop on December 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$210
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST1513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick20cpaid+114.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$81
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+614.3%+$86
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$43
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+2,400%+$240
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$73.2
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoevenbacked Rico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Boxing: Will Usyk win by Decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.74
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$145.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$597Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$597
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.