Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $852,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $943,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $852,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9419…3aa4backed Yes | 12c | 26,248$3,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,058.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 8c | 25,688$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.28 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 15,653$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.13 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 4c | 14,372$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69cb…2320backed Yes | 11c | 12,762$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…8ce9backed Yes | 11c | 11,263$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…520dbacked Yes | 7c | 10,331$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 13c | 10,319$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a6…471bbacked Yes | 10c | 9,794$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…f9fbbacked Yes | 12c | 9,000$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…145bbacked Yes | 15c | 8,771$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 10c | 8,652$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 9c | 7,160$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.38 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ef…5990backed Yes | 8c | 7,049$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 11c | 5,795$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.4 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…7ad2backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 9c | 4,806$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 3,780$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.58 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…7ec1backed Yes | 2c | 3,629$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 9c | 3,553$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.78 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…14ddbacked Yes | 15c | 3,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…745cbacked Yes | 15c | 3,315$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…5d52backed Yes | 22c | 3,196$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…4343backed Yes | 4c | 2,758$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 2c | 2,625$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 11c | 2,444$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.51 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…b244backed Yes | 9c | 2,221$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed Yes | 9c | 2,212$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 2c | 2,207$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 2c | 2,150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,019$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d2…8731backed Yes | 14c | 2,003$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +334.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,988$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,725$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 1,678$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes | 13c | 1,586$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ed…4833backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,496$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 1,479$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.13 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…e030backed Yes | 12c | 1,470$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…6f23backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9c…7a1fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,429$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,380$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,335$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 2c | 1,333$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 2c | 1,287$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,153$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 2c | 1,132$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 12c | 1,120$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 4c | 1,111$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,057$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962b…a155backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 13c | 999.54$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.14 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 17c | 995$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.37 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…2d7abacked Yes | 15c | 979.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…5d66backed Yes | 13c | 956.35$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa735…b423backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…e0b9backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c8…f17dbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d56…4e3bbacked Yes | 16c | 907$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…9d56backed Yes | 16c | 866.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 850$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 12c | 825.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…f4e9backed Yes | 15c | 808.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 2c | 803.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 799.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 2c | 748.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 13c | 747.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…294dbacked Yes | 2c | 719.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…11aebacked Yes | 2c | 688.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 15c | 672.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 2c | 668.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a2…e0fabacked Yes | 2c | 616$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 2c | 573.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015f…30d1backed Yes | 15c | 520.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…bcd6backed Yes | 12c | 500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…5abfbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a37…b78fbacked Yes | 11c | 495.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae80…3900backed Yes | 15c | 493$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 16c | 486.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…5af6backed Yes | 15c | 458.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…3a64backed Yes | 16c | 428.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…7384backed Yes | 15c | 422.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc0…b949backed Yes | 4c | 420$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes | 2c | 417$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cad…9372backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 13c | 368.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.