Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e7c5f41d9faad3749490a87f6add57e8df72ff888998e57242df14629baa24f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $593,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $639,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 527 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25d5…0eb5backed No | 0c | 24,300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…5b2ebacked No | 0c | 11,014$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 75c | 10,127$7,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,547.71 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 52c | 9,312$4,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,467.67 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 79c | 7,617$6,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,041.99 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 64c | 6,776$4,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,445.53 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 65c | 6,087$3,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.35 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…816ebacked Yes | 33c | 5,962$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,973.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed Yes | 62c | 5,800$3,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.99 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 31c | 5,619$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,864.59 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e8…3153backed Yes | 65c | 4,914$3,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 22c | 4,785$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,738.7 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 4,776$3,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.55 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f3…3a31backed Yes | 71c | 4,578$3,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.76 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 59c | 4,099$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.61 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked No | 1c | 3,995$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…f31cbacked Yes | 34c | 3,772$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,481.34 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 65c | 3,657$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.99 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed Yes | 79c | 3,624$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.11 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 61c | 3,532$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,138.76 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 17c | 3,466$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.46 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 36c | 3,396$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,163.69 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 34c | 3,135$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.7 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 3,015$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.48 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 24c | 2,520$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.29 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…d7fabacked No | 1c | 2,496$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…ae22backed Yes | 17c | 2,417$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed No | 60c | 2,225$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…851fbacked Yes | 59c | 2,216$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 11c | 2,180$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +299.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…4c79backed Yes | 53c | 2,104$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.07 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…b1efbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 28c | 1,999$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2827backed Yes | 30c | 1,889$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.17 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 44c | 1,868$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.54 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…8769backed No | 63c | 1,818$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.24 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 46c | 1,785$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked No | 53c | 1,730$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.07 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 59c | 1,726$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.24 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 73c | 1,720$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.85 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed No | 2c | 1,694$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…0e63backed No | 5c | 1,520$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 49c | 1,438$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.63 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…9218backed Yes | 80c | 1,406$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.1 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…fb00backed Yes | 67c | 1,384$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.06 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…8489backed No | 39c | 1,337$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,311$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.86 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed No | 26c | 1,297$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.22 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…dec6backed Yes | 31c | 1,289$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 56c | 1,245$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.87 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6b…5278backed Yes | 44c | 1,132$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…d273backed Yes | 25c | 1,131$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 57c | 1,114$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.73 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…c8e8backed Yes | 48c | 1,109$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.95 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed No | 46c | 1,038$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.66 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,020$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.28 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.99 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 48c | 956.2$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.5 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked Yes | 45c | 923.39$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.37 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked Yes | 67c | 910.69$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 56c | 878.35$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.07 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 36c | 821.33$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.59 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 37c | 818.1$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.72 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…f8d1backed Yes | 42c | 801.63$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.06 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 32c | 799.97$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…dde9backed Yes | 50c | 779.66$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.58 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…4c2cbacked Yes | 51c | 759.35$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.06 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 48c | 749.98$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.99 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 38c | 739.42$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.52 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742d…b40fbacked Yes | 46c | 732.09$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 726$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.72 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…6850backed No | 42c | 713.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 25c | 699.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.99 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…8d0dbacked No | 16c | 666.4$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…6632backed Yes | 61c | 657.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.12 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 80c | 655.91$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…0911backed No | 2c | 618.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 58c | 611.56$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.29 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…f6ebbacked No | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…f779backed Yes | 71c | 590.72$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.69 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 25c | 590.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.63 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 35c | 585.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes | 43c | 581.39$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.69 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Yes | 51c | 570.41$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 67c | 569.98$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.89 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…284fbacked No | 69c | 563.35$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 32c | 549.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.49 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…7007backed Yes | 73c | 536.53$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…5596backed Yes | 28c | 531.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe7…ddf5backed Yes | 79c | 523.48$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…7fc6backed Yes | 66c | 519.61$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.55 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 516.46$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.13 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 13c | 507.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.69 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 49c | 501.15$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.59 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…6435backed Yes | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 68c | 494.44$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 70-79 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-89 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.