Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7017e546c0b56d24026161e295391f5184090392b887de980741e670150fa8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $481,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $486,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 0c | 236,923$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.59 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4f…083fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,060$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 1c | 12,962$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 3c | 11,795$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.74 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…7007backed Yes | 17c | 6,866$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c8…2257backed Yes | 6c | 3,622$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…816ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,957$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 0c | 2,943$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 20c | 2,683$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.9 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 15c | 2,584$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.91 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 76c | 2,212$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.84 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 26c | 1,793$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.19 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 1,701$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 14c | 1,675$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.41 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 12c | 1,615$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.25 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,611$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.95 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…8489backed Yes | 21c | 1,550$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 1,470$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…4423backed Yes | 2c | 1,420$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,346$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 1,240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 1c | 1,209$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 21c | 998.29$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…93bebacked Yes | 41c | 874.05$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 22c | 827.03$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…4c79backed Yes | 37c | 809.58$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.79 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 20c | 777.25$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…d8a0backed Yes | 11c | 730$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…37babacked No | 79c | 678.96$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.94 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 26c | 664.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 31c | 642.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 16c | 641.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b27…7bfdbacked Yes | 3c | 631.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Yes | 12c | 616.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 6c | 571.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 75c | 566.18$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.54 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Yes | 7c | 545.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 542.05$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…d273backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…6457backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6aa1backed Yes | 14c | 483.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 9c | 468.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ad…37efbacked Yes | 30c | 441.75$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…6632backed Yes | 24c | 400$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…bb0fbacked Yes | 27c | 374.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a9…3753backed Yes | 3c | 370$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 9c | 350$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb631…8a87backed Yes | 33c | 315$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 89 | 16.9%15 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6faa…787bbacked Yes | 20c | 300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed No | 60c | 299.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6b…5278backed Yes | 34c | 291.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 37c | 271.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 7c | 268.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 18.4%27 W · 120 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…8c18backed No | 78c | 266.89$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1595…2cf9backed Yes | 12c | 251.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 24c | 244.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Yes | 10c | 241.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +11%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 9c | 237.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…8448backed Yes | 9c | 229.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 16c | 229.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…f8d1backed Yes | 36c | 210.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8a…958ebacked Yes | 29c | 202.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…46e0backed Yes | 35c | 200.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…3f9dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…11ddbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5300…d039backed Yes | 30c | 181.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6379…56f6backed Yes | 21c | 181.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 20c | 173$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked Yes | 35c | 170.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…afb0backed Yes | 8c | 169.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 30c | 168.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc378…e4a8backed Yes | 10c | 166.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…7639backed No | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes | 28c | 151.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3710backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…bd15backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ca…c1d1backed Yes | 30c | 143.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 21c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 12c | 138.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 11c | 136.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd0…2ab1backed Yes | 8c | 133.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 9c | 128.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…e63bbacked Yes | 27c | 128.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d8…8258backed No | 78c | 128.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 21c | 127.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b69…49dabacked Yes | 16c | 121.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c6…6d71backed Yes | 19c | 121.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 97 | 23.7%23 W · 74 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Yes | 20c | 116.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Yes | 16c | 113.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…2365backed Yes | 16c | 111.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…0063backed Yes | 15c | 111.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe7…6ab1backed No | 74c | 108.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked Yes | 37c | 107.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 70-79 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-89 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.