TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe28f…be21

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
119
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst UFC at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT5635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Suns vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.5
Raptors vs. Rockets: 1H Moneylinebacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$26.66
Grizzlies vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$78.77
Grizzlies vs. 76ers: 1H Moneylinebacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.05
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.81
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.91
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Clippers vs. Lakersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$49
1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+81.8%+$136.64
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 10.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+76.5%+$38.26
Cavaliers vs. Hornetsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+96.1%+$49.96
Jazz vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+283.1%+$56.63
Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+138.1%+$55.24
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+96.1%+$24.02
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 115.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+88.7%+$16.85
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$112
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+70%+$42.73
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$41
Spread: Spurs (-13.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+100%+$48
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+134.6%+$40.39
Mavericks vs. Sunsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 225.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Hornets vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneylinebacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$342
1H Spread: 76ers (-7.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$88
1H Spread: Warriors (-4.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+81.8%+$121.91
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST2920.7%6 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$85
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$64
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+156.4%+$270.59
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$296
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+475.4%+$1,112.37
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$199
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+443%+$425.29
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+624.5%+$306
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$229
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$199
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+56.3%+$56.31
Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$74
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 2 Winnerbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$95.51
Will FURIA win IEM Krakow 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$74
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$99
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$96
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs NIP - Map 2 Winnerbacked BC.Game Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+172.4%+$86.22
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs NIP (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$166
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+100%+$99
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs NIP - Map 1 Winnerbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+170.3%+$134.51
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG - Map 2 Winnerbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: paiN vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Counter-Strike: paiN vs B8 - Map 1 Winnerbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$199
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+61.3%+$61.29
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+73.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Great Flood" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$54
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.