Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de87ebdfcb1d9cca57b54589cfbcb1284cee46cacd18f7e1a34e81489d198d5

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,675,286
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,043,315

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,675,286 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 654 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	91,163$2,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,331.76	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	1c	68,287$937 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$936.84	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	0c	38,348$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.38	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4431…c5a7backed Yes	4c	30,108$1,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,192.63	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	8c	21,686$1,804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,803.65	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	7c	21,326$1,460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,460.43	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	19c	20,334$3,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,949.93	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	1c	20,000$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9532…6086backed Yes	1c	19,980$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…a85bbacked Yes	0c	16,715$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.54	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	13c	16,707$2,129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,129.22	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	13c	15,157$2,009 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,008.76	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,332$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	13c	11,959$1,606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,605.91	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	23c	11,884$2,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,750.46	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	5c	11,138$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.03	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes	1c	11,090$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.15	103	22.3%23 W · 80 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x82cf…0998backed Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+3.9wins	+0.21per pick	27cpaid	+81.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	33c	9,331$3,103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,102.82	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	2c	9,081$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.51	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	20c	8,952$1,810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,809.68	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	24c	8,736$2,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,082.97	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	18c	8,716$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,600.28	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	16c	8,687$1,391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,391.36	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	8,596$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.22	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	11c	8,027$857 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$857.32	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	7,960$1,359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,358.9	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	16c	7,241$1,161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,160.8	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	2c	7,023$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.93	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	7,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f1…06e5backed Yes	3c	6,527$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.08	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	2c	6,369$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.89	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e24…67d0backed Yes	4c	6,280$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.54	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	5,888$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.97	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	15c	5,858$853 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$852.94	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	5,657$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	5,500$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	1c	5,500$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	5,440$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	18c	5,428$953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$952.6	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ec…51e8backed Yes	5c	5,371$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-56%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	11c	5,290$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.04	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	5,200$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.1	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	21c	5,016$1,053 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,053.2	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x742e…d945backed Yes	5c	4,654$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.88	62	21%13 W · 49 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	10c	4,500$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	17c	4,320$717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$717	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,311$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.94	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Yes	30c	4,149$1,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,250	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	38cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	8c	4,149$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.1	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	4,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	79c	3,941$3,102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$839.44	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8038…72cfbacked Yes	1c	3,902$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	9c	3,803$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.23	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	3,750$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	22c	3,721$836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$835.6	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	6c	3,644$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.35	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb28…2160backed Yes	20c	3,605$723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$723.41	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	20c	3,586$728 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$727.71	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	19c	3,525$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	3,417$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	17c	3,304$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.78	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	20c	3,275$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$646.11	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	1c	3,233$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.26	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	29c	3,222$918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$918.37	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	9c	3,192$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.06	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	3c	3,149$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.88	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	24c	3,148$769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.96	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	25c	3,100$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.67	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	4c	3,079$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	3,024$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.16	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc940…02d2backed Yes	4c	3,000$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	12cpaid	+274.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	7c	3,000$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed No	66c	3,000$1,980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,019.99	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	20c	3,000$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.5	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	2c	2,995$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	24c	2,977$701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.75	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	7c	2,968$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.52	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	26c	2,912$746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$745.54	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	14c	2,901$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes	13c	2,848$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.44	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	80c	2,800$2,230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$569.69	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fa9…9a3ebacked Yes	2c	2,790$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	11c	2,771$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.24	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	3c	2,750$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.09	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,603$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.32	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	6c	2,526$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	23c	2,500$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.28	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	23c	2,462$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556.51	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes	30c	2,421$722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd82f…75ffbacked Yes	22c	2,401$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$527.75	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd3…f0efbacked Yes	24c	2,396$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.84	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	30c	2,324$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.88	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2af…c4e4backed Yes	3c	2,250$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	2,238$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.28	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes	16c	2,215$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.85	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	10c	2,095$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.18	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	23c	2,093$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.21	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…7a65backed Yes	10c	2,078$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	29c	2,064$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.62	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event