TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$256,080
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,080 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c16,872$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.872740.4%1 W · 273 L+0.7wins0.00per pick0cpaid+257.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes0c15,650$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.65981%1 W · 97 L-0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes1c10,607$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.16641.6%1 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-85.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73b1…ceeebacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6f…427abacked Yes0c9,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1622…4d4ebacked Yes0c5,619$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c5,377$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.041,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes3c4,070$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+97.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes6c3,471$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.614816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes1c2,789$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1419722.8%45 W · 152 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes2c2,556$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.671,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c2,083$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.881,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140248.3%2 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes5c1,610$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.157966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed Yes4c1,585$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.54619.8%6 W · 55 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes5c1,532$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757334.2%25 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes4c1,512$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.43512%1 W · 50 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick10cpaid-97.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c1,433$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.992,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c1,387$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.56915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c1,385$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.867304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes4c1,320$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.72616.6%4 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick6cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes2c1,309$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.123408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes2c1,121$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3860127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes3c1,117$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.051356.7%9 W · 126 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes3c1,106$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1514015.7%22 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes4c1,053$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.991,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20685.9%4 W · 64 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes5c1,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes4c1,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.65198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes7c999.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705324.5%13 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes7c999.95$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70446.8%3 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes8c999.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801128.9%10 W · 102 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes3c969.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.467711.7%9 W · 68 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6db6…5001backed Yes4c949.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.355313.2%7 W · 46 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+165.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes5c890.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.992114.7%10 W · 201 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…7aaebacked Yes4c845.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6280%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes4c817.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3913312.8%17 W · 116 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b57…ecccbacked Yes7c781$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.61711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes4c770.2$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.71,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c737.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.052,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes6c712.72$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.472595.4%14 W · 245 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes4c700$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61948.8%17 W · 177 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes3c622.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.131027.8%8 W · 94 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes4c612.19$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7168615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c0…547ebacked Yes5c609.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.88147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7db…293fbacked Yes4c600$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2170%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes5c600$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.61038.7%9 W · 94 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes4c599.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24849.5%8 W · 76 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+105%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f5c…8880backed Yes4c504.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.97166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-88.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes4c500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0851410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes8c499.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402317.4%17 W · 214 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes2c462.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.24429.5%4 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+150.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc651…98efbacked Yes2c433.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Yes3c417.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d3a…9226backed Yes5c413.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes4c400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.34812.5%6 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3236018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…8d4cbacked Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-88.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb21…c79dbacked Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cde…bf31backed Yes5c399.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33414.7%5 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes5c392.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.613010%3 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…feb4backed Yes4c390.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143616.7%6 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+36.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes3c390$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5432015%48 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick15cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51d9…6129backed Yes6c364.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.42911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-74.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes4c329.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.171209.2%11 W · 109 L+0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420b…c5cdbacked Yes4c328$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.451711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes4c320$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.27011.4%8 W · 62 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2416119.9%32 W · 129 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes6c300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191118.1%9 W · 102 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216212.9%8 W · 54 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+63.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes6c300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191488.8%13 W · 135 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes7c299.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22855.9%5 W · 80 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc513…dc03backed Yes4c299.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-79.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes4c299.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8568.9%5 W · 51 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcda…a696backed Yes7c299.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2694…415abacked Yes5c282.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.99140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50b0…a3d5backed Yes4c254.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa90a…523fbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f8…ccacbacked Yes4c240.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.18622.1%19 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes4c240.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59659.2%6 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a2d…e075backed Yes7c229.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167833.3%26 W · 52 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0e…fb07backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1612920.9%27 W · 102 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edc…8f80backed Yes7c199.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked Yes6c199.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c180.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4678811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd2b…a015backed Yes9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…482ebacked Yes9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7d…0caabacked Yes8c155.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123023.3%7 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-26.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x102d…c9afbacked Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117713%10 W · 67 L-0.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c7d…2a6bbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…7144backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104012.5%5 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.