Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1841d90d0be551902dcab44573bb810ae2f922a35d7c5db581ce90df005ce3

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $214,436
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,436 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3b07…934abacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	0c	16,665$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.32	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	14,514$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.51	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	12,592$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	4,508$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.41	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	4,322$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.08	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	5c	3,833$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.82	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,656$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.28	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	2c	2,130$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.2	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,721$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.88	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420b…c5cdbacked Yes	2c	1,651$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.42	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	1c	1,593$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.46	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,485$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	1,423$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.56	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	1,349$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	1,325$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	1,319$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.36	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	1,300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	4c	1,249$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.48	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	1,202$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.97	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	1,099$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.89	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	1,043$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.69	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc296…0f22backed Yes	4c	1,013$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.45	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,009$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	68	5.9%4 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43ad…da5dbacked Yes	2c	1,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	3c	1,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	999.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	2c	999.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a7e…ce6cbacked Yes	1c	976.19$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	944.97$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.45	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	2c	913.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	1c	715.02$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	2c	700$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe19e…adbfbacked Yes	2c	700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff1…bd17backed Yes	2c	699.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	2c	625$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	2c	609.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2694…415abacked Yes	3c	574.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.14	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	2c	514.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	83	14.5%12 W · 71 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46fe…d0e7backed Yes	4c	499.97$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	446.16$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.06	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd178…c69abacked Yes	2c	441.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb9cc…7144backed Yes	2c	423.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes	3c	333.57$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event