Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dce6588608e217f56db57ad96033eb7b348a76c0a99ac8f2eba564f1bd20b89

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $276,501
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $88,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,501 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	8c	13,939$1,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,136.33	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,332$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	0c	9,815$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.94	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	0c	7,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1622…4d4ebacked Yes	0c	5,396$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,469$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	1c	2,800$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	9c	2,636$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.62	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	1c	2,427$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.65	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	2,424$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.85	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,295$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.52	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,163$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	5c	2,100$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	1,964$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.85	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,948$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.48	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,889$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.2	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes	10c	1,822$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.63	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	1,679$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.71	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,666$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.48	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	10c	1,654$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.85	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	1c	1,292$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.81	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	4c	1,234$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.18	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	4c	1,100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	11c	1,100$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	1,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes	4c	999.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	68	5.9%4 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	9c	999.93$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.99	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	996.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.1	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	4c	966.54$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.67	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	4c	900$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e28…c195backed Yes	11c	893.84$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	27cpaid	+97.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	6c	833.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed Yes	12c	791.67$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	7c	700$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc651…98efbacked Yes	3c	693.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c0…547ebacked Yes	6c	666.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…feb4backed Yes	4c	664.29$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	3c	626.82$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.31	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	6c	624.08$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.58	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	8c	600$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	3c	579.66$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.21	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa67f…e81cbacked Yes	3c	573.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	539.06$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.03	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes	10c	522.38$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.24	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	500$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	499.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	3c	477.85$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.67	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	7c	460.68$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	8c	435.03$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d9…6129backed Yes	8c	401.67$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-74.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7db…293fbacked Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	399.97$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	370.25$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.21	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d7d…f83bbacked Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	161	19.9%32 W · 129 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cde…bf31backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	4c	299.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked Yes	9c	299.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-86%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes	7c	299.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	56	8.9%5 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+54.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcda…a696backed Yes	9c	299.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	7c	245.29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc562…b5c9backed Yes	11c	218.18$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	80	21.3%17 W · 63 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2694…415abacked Yes	7c	217.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…1557backed Yes	7c	214.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07f8…ccacbacked Yes	5c	213.06$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x102d…c9afbacked Yes	11c	209.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	77	13%10 W · 67 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae80…ca34backed Yes	12c	208.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	10c	208.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.81	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed Yes	13c	205.71$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.06	150	21.3%32 W · 118 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdef7…217fbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	16%8 W · 42 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+96%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edc…8f80backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c0e…fb07backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	129	20.9%27 W · 102 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2815…768dbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ef…12ffbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	61	45.9%28 W · 33 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes	10c	199.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	116	18.1%21 W · 95 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa46f…cd17backed Yes	9c	199.97$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…58c7backed Yes	7c	171.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	8c	158.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf93…e9babacked Yes	13c	156.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3b…369fbacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	8c	150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4591…a7fabacked Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85e7…0bc1backed Yes	10c	149.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.93	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd2b…a015backed Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a8…bc82backed Yes	12c	120.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-37%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7d…0caabacked Yes	11c	119.78$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5427…2fd0backed Yes	12c	110$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…301dbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	87	24.1%21 W · 66 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb797…dc58backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event