Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9435115ad8e5b91432fa4a5a5764c58550409e5c83c1c14c35347c29e26f669

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $611,809
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $169,351

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $611,809 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	55,198$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.38	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	22,319$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.17	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	14,774$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.55	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	10,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	774	21.7%168 W · 606 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	9,387$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1,083	8.2%89 W · 994 L	+28.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	8,972$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	0c	8,565$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	8,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	7,200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	7,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1622…4d4ebacked Yes	0c	6,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	4c	5,806$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.18	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	9c	5,100$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.99	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	1c	5,013$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x503d…4055backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	5,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.99	712	16.7%119 W · 593 L	-13.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	3c	4,979$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.66	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01b5…e1ecbacked Yes	0c	4,958$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	4,495$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.54	1,041	11%115 W · 926 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	3,794$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.8	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	3,387$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.09	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	3,284$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.75	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	10c	3,140$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.98	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	2,987$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.88	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f1b…c2a3backed Yes	0c	2,914$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	0c	2,856$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	162	6.2%10 W · 152 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+60.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	2,750$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,382$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.23	2,181	3.9%85 W · 2,096 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	8c	2,273$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…c3cabacked Yes	10c	2,193$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0d…3ec5backed Yes	1c	2,179$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	32	25%8 W · 24 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	6c	2,003$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.12	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	582	8.1%47 W · 535 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	2,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	461	11.3%52 W · 409 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	1c	1,930$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.65	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	2c	1,800$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	147	25.2%37 W · 110 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ecc…6931backed Yes	6c	1,773$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.37	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes	9c	1,738$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	12c	1,701$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	1,695$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.74	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c5…d96abacked Yes	2c	1,540$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.8	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-85.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	1,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.94	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b2…e7ecbacked Yes	7c	1,463$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	17.3%9 W · 43 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	2c	1,400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10de…f022backed Yes	7c	1,389$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	1c	1,342$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	264	15.2%40 W · 224 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	8c	1,320$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	6c	1,250$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.81	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Yes	9c	1,142$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.74	108	24.1%26 W · 82 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,031$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	391	4.6%18 W · 373 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,002$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.86	1,209	8.7%105 W · 1,104 L	+31.6wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	7c	1,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe67…9fcfbacked Yes	2c	1,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	5c	999.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes	4c	999.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	68	5.9%4 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	5c	999.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	11c	920.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	9c	858.08$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.23	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	765.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	2,576	13.2%339 W · 2,237 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22ad…c3c9backed Yes	2c	720.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	9c	700$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	8c	641.44$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.73	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Yes	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8177…be85backed Yes	9c	609.78$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.38	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes	6c	600$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.05	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	9c	599.96$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	574.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	10c	555.5$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	8c	532.1$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.19	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fa…f447backed Yes	10c	504.47$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+2.5wins	+0.15per pick	9cpaid	+156.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe045…3f72backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad0a…7898backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	70	18.6%13 W · 57 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+104.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	9c	500$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	7c	462.49$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.37	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	8c	449.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	9c	439.75$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.58	417	30.9%129 W · 288 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	6c	423.04$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	199	22.6%45 W · 154 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	8c	422.08$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	11c	416.93$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.42	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdef7…217fbacked Yes	9c	400$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	50	16%8 W · 42 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+96%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	11c	400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes	6c	399.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	56	8.9%5 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+54.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x102d…c9afbacked Yes	9c	399.98$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.8	77	13%10 W · 67 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf8d…d0e3backed Yes	7c	390$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	+34%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4f81…7274backed Yes	10c	304.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.45	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-86%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	47	17%8 W · 39 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e86…83c6backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	49	16.3%8 W · 41 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	7c	300$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6962…b3d0backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4320…a05ebacked Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2429…7aaebacked Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event