Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4f60ea179e526e76ec16fddf9983bf44abf2dce7377161ae76a8ce7fe140c9

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $456,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $148,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $456,765 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc908…f949backed Yes	0c	18,057$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	14,184$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.54	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes	0c	13,435$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	0cpaid	+6,150%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	13,337$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	13,231$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8269…7c3abacked Yes	0c	10,459$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	10,209$1,015 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,014.63	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	10,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	8,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	4c	7,911$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.19	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	0c	7,818$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.64	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	5,910$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.74	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	5,858$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.36	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1622…4d4ebacked Yes	0c	5,550$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd892…d43abacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	4,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	3c	3,500$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.5	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	3,386$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.38	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	3c	3,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	2,962$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.33	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	2,682$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.39	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	7c	2,625$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.9	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	4c	2,383$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.27	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Yes	9c	2,334$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2543…ce9bbacked Yes	1c	2,327$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes	9c	1,973$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.03	62	12.9%8 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	6c	1,871$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.22	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	1,868$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.32	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa95b…6927backed Yes	12c	1,731$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe5…636cbacked Yes	8c	1,688$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	12c	1,608$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	1c	1,519$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	1,516$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.11	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	9c	1,495$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.53	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	2c	1,400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.71	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	5c	1,317$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	6c	1,250$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.44	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,172$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.69	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	10c	1,100$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	9c	1,084$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,021$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.54	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	1,002$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	5.9%4 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86d8…238ebacked Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5dfa…9c89backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	7c	999.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes	10c	978.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	9c	899.99$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8177…be85backed Yes	8c	833.17$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.1	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6469…d07cbacked Yes	12c	827.3$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6149…ae26backed Yes	1c	773.19$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	7c	751.01$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.14	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9837…16aabacked Yes	13c	720.85$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.71	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	8c	700$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	9c	700$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	9c	682.56$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.18	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c68…9db4backed Yes	12c	669.98$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.4	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	9c	640$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.8	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	617.01$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.27	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdef7…217fbacked Yes	10c	600$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	50	16%8 W · 42 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+96%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	9c	599.99$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	10c	589.95$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.46	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad1…03dabacked Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	10c	555$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	4c	510.27$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.52	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad0a…7898backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	70	18.6%13 W · 57 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+104.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071f…8ac3backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db6…5001backed Yes	10c	499.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+165.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5c…8880backed Yes	7c	431.86$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.23	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-88.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf93…e9babacked Yes	10c	416.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	414.55$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.73	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	9c	400$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	8c	400$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes	11c	400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	12c	399.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x102d…c9afbacked Yes	10c	399.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	77	13%10 W · 67 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes	11c	399.97$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	116	18.1%21 W · 95 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	6c	350$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.45	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	161	19.9%32 W · 129 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6962…b3d0backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	56	8.9%5 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+54.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7db…293fbacked Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e86…83c6backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	49	16.3%8 W · 41 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcda…a696backed Yes	9c	299.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	9c	287.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb97…1aa0backed Yes	8c	275.5$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.04	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	9c	275$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	5c	273.39$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d42…aa9cbacked Yes	5c	260$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d7d…f83bbacked Yes	8c	256.25$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…301dbacked Yes	10c	250$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	87	24.1%21 W · 66 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	10c	250$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18c4…b348backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	7c	250$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event