Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3015d8ad564ec256b226f29d4665eff1309dba1b8096d871542ff34fece2e7b

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 29, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $946,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $621,953

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $946,725 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 487 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	4c	26,908$1,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,064.11	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	6c	19,214$1,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,067.34	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	12c	17,000$1,984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,984.15	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes	10c	12,876$1,329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,328.56	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	11,098$1,816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,816.27	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	10,297$1,466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,466.43	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	11c	9,294$1,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,024.47	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	9c	8,874$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.1	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	10c	7,782$793 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$793.31	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	13c	7,635$1,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,026.83	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	17c	6,745$1,117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,117.37	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	5c	6,741$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.43	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes	12c	6,712$833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$832.61	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	6,186$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.38	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	8c	6,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.03	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	5,873$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.14	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	5,575$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.33	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	5,459$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.81	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	7c	5,444$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.75	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	12c	5,213$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	8c	5,161$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.83	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	13c	5,035$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.34	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8038…72cfbacked Yes	5c	4,986$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	4,812$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.92	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	16c	4,812$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750.39	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes	7c	4,482$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.87	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,460$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.45	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	4,412$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	4,351$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.33	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	19c	4,324$827 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$827.25	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd41d…4cf6backed Yes	1c	4,170$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.2	133	21.8%29 W · 104 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	4,003$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.35	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38d0…899bbacked Yes	20c	3,830$749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$749.16	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16c6…9534backed Yes	24c	3,746$901 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$901.22	49	30.6%15 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	3,584$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.84	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	5c	3,542$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.3	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	13c	3,511$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.63	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	5c	3,476$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.33	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	2c	3,147$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	9c	3,060$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.06	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	27c	3,049$833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$832.59	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c68…878dbacked Yes	17c	2,875$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dd3…f0efbacked Yes	12c	2,842$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.09	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	1c	2,750$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	79c	2,686$2,136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550.87	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	1c	2,668$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.34	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes	9c	2,644$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	54	22.2%12 W · 42 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eaa…3feabacked Yes	16c	2,623$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.09	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2a…d39ebacked Yes	1c	2,610$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.49	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	5c	2,577$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.36	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35bb…6e36backed Yes	2c	2,538$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	17c	2,505$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.48	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes	19c	2,467$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.01	238	31.1%74 W · 164 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	1c	2,400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	5c	2,398$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.93	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	21c	2,376$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	27c	2,368$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.9	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes	23c	2,303$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.3	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	24c	2,273$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.41	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf804…8028backed Yes	2c	2,273$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.91	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	5c	2,216$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.11	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc69…53a0backed Yes	8c	2,185$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed No	70c	2,100$1,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$620.05	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	8c	2,075$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.72	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	30c	2,042$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.27	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	3c	2,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	8c	2,000$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fba…22f2backed Yes	23c	1,998$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.65	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+79.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	1,960$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.78	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	9c	1,915$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.56	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	1,842$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d9…c51ebacked Yes	14c	1,842$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.88	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,783$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	1,735$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.95	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	7c	1,717$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.91	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	13c	1,694$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.91	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	3c	1,691$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.31	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	9c	1,655$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.62	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	14c	1,623$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.18	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	5c	1,621$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	5c	1,595$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.9	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	29c	1,569$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.12	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes	4c	1,562$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.53	79	30.4%24 W · 55 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9480…a200backed Yes	6c	1,530$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	59	28.8%17 W · 42 L	+4.0wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8269…7c3abacked Yes	9c	1,518$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.5	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	1,516$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.01	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf833…37f0backed Yes	29c	1,477$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.57	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes	9c	1,474$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes	1c	1,464$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	148	18.2%27 W · 121 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	10c	1,440$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No	60c	1,434$865 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$569.43	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes	4c	1,428$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.51	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	9c	1,409$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.27	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes	2c	1,346$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.76	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	1,340$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.08	578	11.4%66 W · 512 L	+19.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f0a…c5c0backed Yes	15c	1,285$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.74	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No	78c	1,278$996 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	10c	1,269$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.31	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe92c…d714backed Yes	3c	1,261$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.86	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	2c	1,237$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.08	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event