Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5e88038b63f158a29df51da3020709f18f360e085d256015d2f575fb4cefd9

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $888,459
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $454,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $888,459 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	31,524$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855.06	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	4c	24,009$1,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	1c	19,415$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.82	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	14,834$1,275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,274.67	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	4c	12,682$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.17	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	12,533$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.06	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	12,236$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.65	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	12,116$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.33	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	4c	11,898$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.64	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	11,816$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.72	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	11,313$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.57	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	7c	11,201$768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.12	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	10,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	10,282$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.61	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	2c	9,276$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.03	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	8,350$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	8,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5350…df2abacked Yes	1c	7,691$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.9	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a6…d67fbacked Yes	0c	7,204$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	16cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	6c	6,964$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.04	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	9c	6,939$651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$651.22	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	6,739$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.25	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	6,337$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.45	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	5c	5,940$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.14	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	5,550$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.8	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	5,224$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.38	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	4c	5,021$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.16	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9cb…84a1backed Yes	10c	5,014$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	5,000$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.85	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	5c	4,622$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9532…6086backed Yes	2c	4,450$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	4,409$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	4,000$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.36	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	4c	3,861$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.92	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	4c	3,793$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.71	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	3c	3,723$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.51	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	11c	3,687$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.47	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	1c	3,600$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	2c	3,442$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.54	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	3,313$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.92	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	3,274$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.65	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes	10c	3,231$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.6	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	3,118$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.93	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	3,063$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	10c	3,020$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.56	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	8c	3,001$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.49	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes	3c	2,991$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.78	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+219.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,975$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.2	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ac…7784backed Yes	0c	2,962$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.18	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	2,959$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.52	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7e…9c0bbacked Yes	1c	2,871$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,854$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.42	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	2,750$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.75	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	14c	2,711$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.7	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	3c	2,633$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.44	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	6c	2,620$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.03	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d9…c51ebacked Yes	2c	2,609$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.67	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	7c	2,600$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.45	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb60…3ce8backed Yes	1c	2,372$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+72.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	1c	2,359$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.27	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75b2…e7ecbacked Yes	9c	2,288$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	52	17.3%9 W · 43 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed Yes	1c	2,240$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.58	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+344.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	2,202$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	2,200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	2,200$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.4	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Yes	12c	2,153$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0cc…415bbacked Yes	3c	2,041$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.88	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	2,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.93	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	2c	1,900$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	3c	1,840$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.09	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	9c	1,719$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	6c	1,701$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.05	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x742e…d945backed Yes	12c	1,682$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.76	62	21%13 W · 49 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes	2c	1,634$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	3c	1,607$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.57	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	6c	1,507$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.42	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	7c	1,429$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	4c	1,415$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.98	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	7c	1,403$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	6c	1,380$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x102d…c9afbacked Yes	3c	1,372$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.57	77	13%10 W · 67 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	9c	1,337$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.4	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	9c	1,322$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26e2…1a63backed Yes	2c	1,320$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	1,304$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.06	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	6c	1,300$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Yes	2c	1,285$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	33cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	2c	1,245$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes	2c	1,241$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.28	54	27.8%15 W · 39 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe72c…a10fbacked Yes	1c	1,231$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	8c	1,216$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.56	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	1,200$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.8	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	3c	1,176$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0899…2bc6backed Yes	2c	1,172$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.11	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b5…10eabacked Yes	3c	1,103$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	1,065$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	7c	1,051$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	5c	1,045$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event