Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eb285eec5b4782396248c5508148d45ca79152b8d06ef97e29c766c3975ff4f

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 29, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $927,380
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $620,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $927,380 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	4c	42,964$1,675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,674.96	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb752…42bbbacked Yes	0c	21,700$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.1	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+65.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	21,168$841 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$840.5	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	17,451$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.07	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	12,073$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.72	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	10,600$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.46	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	5c	10,132$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.08	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	10,050$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.99	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fba…22f2backed Yes	5c	9,436$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.99	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+79.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	6c	8,795$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.82	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	4c	8,510$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.05	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	7,837$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.65	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	4c	7,084$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.8	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	6,870$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.38	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	5c	6,853$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.09	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	6c	6,539$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	6,260$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.73	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	3c	6,000$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.95	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b47…8f6bbacked Yes	7c	5,716$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.24	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-77%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	3c	5,656$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.65	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e24…67d0backed Yes	6c	5,483$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.61	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	5,430$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.53	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	3c	5,422$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.39	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	1c	5,400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aab…14f4backed Yes	5c	4,587$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+70.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	3c	4,456$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.37	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes	4c	4,198$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.08	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	4,021$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.88	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	4c	3,940$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.66	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc69…53a0backed Yes	3c	3,820$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes	6c	3,534$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.43	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes	4c	3,497$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.85	54	22.2%12 W · 42 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	3,355$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.7	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	4c	3,242$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.17	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes	7c	3,203$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.52	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes	5c	3,200$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	3c	3,130$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.33	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	4c	3,100$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.9	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	3,011$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.59	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	2c	3,000$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	1c	2,969$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	2,570$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.95	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,485$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.71	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	5c	2,411$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.14	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x66fe…c51abacked Yes	0c	2,350$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	6c	2,347$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.7	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	4c	2,324$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.04	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	8c	2,297$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.34	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	2,293$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.59	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	2,240$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.84	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0a…c5c0backed Yes	2c	2,218$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9278…8a12backed Yes	5c	2,212$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.15	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	2,177$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.21	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xded4…28f7backed Yes	7c	2,101$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	1c	2,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4819…c342backed Yes	1c	2,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d0…899bbacked Yes	8c	1,997$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.97	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	2c	1,984$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.24	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,971$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.03	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8db…b27cbacked Yes	2c	1,960$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.23	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f1…06e5backed Yes	4c	1,926$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.46	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35bb…6e36backed Yes	3c	1,881$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x800e…01a5backed Yes	2c	1,857$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8269…7c3abacked Yes	5c	1,810$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.2	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	4c	1,777$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.83	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	1,756$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes	3c	1,753$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4523…9c64backed Yes	1c	1,705$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.48	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	2c	1,645$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.04	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes	1c	1,612$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.81	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	1,600$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	1,600$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.08	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	2c	1,578$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7900…1e3ebacked Yes	7c	1,568$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.75	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-81%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	5c	1,543$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.35	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75b2…e7ecbacked Yes	7c	1,451$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	17.3%9 W · 43 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	1,423$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9115…a92fbacked Yes	7c	1,376$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	3c	1,374$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.19	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	1,372$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd891…68c8backed Yes	3c	1,303$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.76	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc9…b297backed Yes	4c	1,286$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0fd…434abacked Yes	6c	1,260$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.77	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	5c	1,200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	3c	1,186$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.11	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	3c	1,130$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.9	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	1,118$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.4	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	3c	1,116$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.14	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…7d9abacked Yes	5c	1,095$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.31	240	22.9%55 W · 185 L	-14.2wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	1,088$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	4c	1,078$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.34	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	1c	1,067$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.35	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	5c	1,053$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.81	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8a0…2c5abacked Yes	3c	1,052$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d49…00f4backed Yes	2c	1,049$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3064…d5f4backed Yes	10c	1,042$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	2c	1,037$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.73	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63ea…2072backed Yes	9c	1,035$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.95	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event