Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b5d5262ab3a35b2fc7188626b89304899b8f11ab5a6b80adc038309fb7508eb

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,394,781
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $825,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,394,781 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 563 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	56,810$3,348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,347.91	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	40,796$2,481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,481.48	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	29,963$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.64	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	5c	20,579$1,045 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,044.55	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	3c	20,000$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.5	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	7c	19,455$1,317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,316.72	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	19,403$1,772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,772	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	1c	15,910$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.11	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	4c	14,541$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.15	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	4c	14,439$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.45	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	8c	13,001$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030.37	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	20c	11,201$2,261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,260.58	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	9c	11,183$968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$967.93	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	11c	10,826$1,153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,153.25	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	6c	10,301$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.1	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	13c	10,000$1,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,285	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	11c	9,377$1,022 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,022.24	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	5c	9,083$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.33	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	8,460$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.62	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	1c	8,000$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.9	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	8,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	4c	7,944$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.82	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	8c	7,763$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$586.97	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2090…2246backed Yes	8c	7,690$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.5	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	7,069$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.43	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	6,990$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.6	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	7c	6,698$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.98	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	13c	6,277$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.88	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	7c	6,025$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.43	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes	2c	5,868$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.28	49	36.7%18 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	9c	5,550$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.92	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	5,240$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.03	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes	1c	5,162$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.25	103	22.3%23 W · 80 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	9c	4,933$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.03	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9cb…84a1backed Yes	8c	4,902$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	6c	4,873$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.83	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	7c	4,806$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.44	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	4,802$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.47	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	5c	4,800$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.92	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	4,653$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.73	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	18c	4,638$816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816.36	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	4,550$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.31	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…415bbacked Yes	8c	4,427$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.33	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	15c	4,405$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.1	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	8c	4,377$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.78	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc77a…8546backed Yes	3c	4,348$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.96	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+3.4wins	+0.13per pick	10cpaid	+130.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5350…df2abacked Yes	2c	4,306$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.72	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	6c	4,275$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.2	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes	7c	4,038$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.16	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+219.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	4,000$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.6	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf833…37f0backed Yes	3c	3,991$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.81	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	3,930$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.45	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	6c	3,880$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.88	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	10c	3,824$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.75	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	3,761$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.82	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	9c	3,720$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.98	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	3,689$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.45	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	5c	3,578$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.02	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	12c	3,539$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.6	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	4c	3,514$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.56	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	3,437$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.59	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	2c	3,289$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.93	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	6c	3,229$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.33	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	5c	3,199$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,176$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e36…c05cbacked Yes	32c	3,100$996 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$996.35	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	51cpaid	+71%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	3,041$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.29	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	10c	2,945$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.02	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8269…7c3abacked Yes	2c	2,842$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	14c	2,839$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.29	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	7c	2,787$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.47	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	5c	2,780$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72c…a10fbacked Yes	3c	2,741$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.66	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9fa…5fa9backed Yes	12c	2,722$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	14c	2,720$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	8c	2,716$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.94	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	10c	2,700$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.61	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	5c	2,700$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.96	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	8c	2,600$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.44	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	8c	2,500$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.55	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	8c	2,480$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.52	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	3c	2,300$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	3c	2,229$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.6	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	8c	2,196$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.15	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	2,194$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.21	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	4c	2,189$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.74	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes	6c	2,135$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.06	81	27.2%22 W · 59 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	8c	2,105$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.34	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf53a…29acbacked Yes	10c	2,060$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	2,046$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.96	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	4c	2,036$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.58	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	7c	2,000$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.14	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	3c	2,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes	18c	2,000$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.5	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	4c	1,994$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b2…e7ecbacked Yes	11c	1,958$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	52	17.3%9 W · 43 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed Yes	4c	1,935$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.35	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	10c	1,919$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.03	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	1,910$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.03	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	7c	1,867$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event